Fred Reed calls it


From Fred’s latest column:

As the sentient have presumably noticed, the United States is in crisis, the country’s problems are profound, intrinsic, without solution, and worsening. When a population reaches the point of despair, even desperation, when it sees a darkening future for itself and its children, people yearn for a strong man who will forcibly put things right. Yet it is unlikely that helicopters of Marines from Quantico will descend on the White House and announce the dictatorship of some general. Military officers are too well paid and comfortable to worry about the country. It is hard to imagine an American Mussolini. Trump is a caricature and no one else comes to mind. Yet “unrest” –less euphemistically, “chaos” on the order of Mr. Floyd’s massive riots, is possible. We have seen it. We can see it again.

Consider America today. By comparison with Japan, China, Korea, it is a barbarity, a dumpster, an asylum, an abattoir, an astonishment. San Francisco loses conventions because of needles and excrement on the sidewalks. Almost weekly we see multiple shootings in stores, high schools and, now, grade schools. Murders of whites by blacks run at thirty a month, the news being suppressed. In cities across the country crime is out of control, the tax bases moving out, bail abolished so criminals are freed in hours. stores leave to escape undiscouraged shoplifting and robbery. Seven hundred homicides a year in Chicago, 300 in Baltimore, and at least twice as many shot but survive, similar numbers in a dozen cities. For practical purposes law does not exists in these ungovernable enclaves. Sexual curiosities, once called perversions, flourish with American embassies hoisting flags in support of transsexualism Mobs topple historical statues. Many tens of thousands live on sidewalks and a hundred thousand a year die of opioid overdoses. The country drops math requirements and English grammar in schools, AP courses, and SATs as racist. The economy declines, jobs have left for other climes, medical care in beyond most people’s means, government is corrupt and incompetent, and wars are unending. There is actual hatred between racial, political, and regional groups. Ominously, gun sales are up.

How is this going to end well? How did we get here?

. . .

The current regime in Washington appears deliberately and intensely divisive. Biden has attacked the South, supporting renaming of military bases in deliberate affront. A thorough racist, he frequently denounces whites. He denounces Trump and his supporters, nearly half of America. He has ostentatiously chosen black women as justice of the Supreme Court, member of Federal Reserve, Vice President, and White House spokeswoman. While these may or may not be competent, he announced them as diversity hires. He is poised to assault owners of guns, sure to provoke fury, has involved America in another war, and wants a federal Ministry of Truth to prohibit ideas he doesn’t like. Profoundly partisan, he makes no attempt to calm things or promote tranquility.

. . .

This can’t last. The hatreds are intense, the guns everywhere, anger growing at crime, something akin to economic desperation appearing. Washington will leave nowhere alone, will not address national problems, will always give priority to its military, its wars and its empire over domestic needs. The hostility that fueled the Floyd riots, the burning cities, the looting and vengeful vandalism, are still there. She’s going to blow. Watch.

There’s more at the link.

Fred’s saying no more than many other pundits (including yours truly) have been saying for a while now (some of them for years).  I can’t disagree with his forecast.  This is going to blow, and when it does, life is likely to become noisy, precarious and “interesting” (in the sense of the fabled Chinese curse) for anyone in or near big cities.  Those of us who are more distant from them will be insulated to a certain extent, but we’ll still have to be ready to “repel boarders” when necessary.

I also agree with Mr. Reed that in the chaos, there will be overwhelming temptation for Americans to elect – or at least tolerate – a “strong man” who promises to take charge, end the chaos and restore order.  That’s a pattern visible in history on many previous occasions.  It’s very, very seldom ended well.  In our case, I expect we’ll see local or regional “strong men” jockeying for position, cementing their local power base (if necessary by exterminating or driving out those who won’t support them) and trading favors and supplies for national influence.

I fear that outcome even more than I fear chaos and anarchy.  One can keep local control over chaos, given sufficient ruthlessness, and anarchists can be neutralized.  It’s much harder to control a “strong man” with military and/or security forces (whether official or “spontaneously organized militia”) backing him.  That goes double when half or more of one’s neighbors may want to support him as “the only possible way out of this mess”.  That way lies dictatorship and all its evils.  Even worse, that way lies criminal domination of society.  We’ve already seen how drug cartels literally control large parts of Mexico, up to and including entire states.  Want to see that here?  In the upheaval that’s coming, you may.  If it isn’t cartels, it’ll be powerful gangs dominating a city (see Chicago, for example, where that’s already a reality), or alliances between left-wing (BLM, Antifa) or right-wing (Proud Boys, local militias) producing the same result.

I’ve spoken often enough about the need to prepare for what’s coming.  If you haven’t done so yet, you’d better crack the whip, because you don’t have much time left, and the supply chain crunch may mean you’ll find it difficult to acquire all you need in the short term.  I won’t be surprised if the meltdown commences before the end of this year.



  1. Probably correct, most of it. IMO, if the shooting starts getting real, it may be the Antifa and/or the BLM that starts it. Those groups have bought a lot of guns and think they know how to use them. They are real good at posing with them and shooting at paper targets. But one thing they are really bad at is ignoring America's massive army of hunters, the vast majority being conservative, pro USA, pro family, and a lot like Rambo: Just want to be left alone. A point to ponder… they all have scoped rifles and are very proficient at using them. Many are experienced and trained ex-military, excellent at organizing and getting things done, like nailing a target at a 1,000 yards or more. And remember, there are somewhere around 30 million of them, more than all the armies of the world combined. I do believe that Antifa and BLM and the rest of their ilk will and up wishing they had indeed – left them alone. Plus, if you think for a second these men and women are going to give up their guns to a feeble, demented, out-of-control politician, well, not a chance. One other thing. It could easily be a huge false flag event that backfires and blows the lid off. The people that conduct these things have no idea whatever the mine field they are starting to walk in.

  2. We've already seen how drug cartels literally control large parts of Mexico, up to and including entire states.

    Probably the thing that surprises me the most is that the obvious answer to why we have open borders now is never talked about. Someone, or more likely, someones in our government is owned by the cartels. Whether or not it's complete agencies and complete departments instead of individuals here and there is all that's left to discover. It's not just "down in olde Mexico" where corruption thrives.

    I haven't read the entire article at Fred's site, but governmental corruption is surprisingly lacking in the excerpt. There could be paragraphs.

  3. I expect things to get serious long about end of August into September when the world wide crop report numbers start to sink in.
    Food here will get very expensive, yet what stores we have will be demanded be sent to the "poor starving children" overseas. As shortages continue it will get harder to deliver foodstuffs and most anything consumer related to the big cities.
    BLM, Antifa, and who knows what other alphabet soup cluster of malcontents will let their displeasure be known in their usual fashion. I expect some of them will venture out into the hinterlands once they discover that is where the food originates. Crews of them will venture out demanding their right of free food and attempting to take what they want. Hey, it's been working for them in their native bright blue urban environs, why not out in flyover country. Nothing there to stop them other than a few hicks and rednecks. May just be in for a surprise or to, yah think?

  4. Added note, should what I predict come about it's not beyond the pale to assume that the current powers that be might just use that unrest as an excuse to declare martial law and suspend the midterm elections. As they are wont to note, one should never let a good crisis go to waste.

  5. SiGraybeard:

    I lived in northern New Mexico for almost 5 decades. One thing I learned about the local governments is that the vast majority of the bureaucrats, most of the governmental legislators and judges are of Mexican roots and many, many of them want to take back the southwest for the great Nation of Mexico. Especially this generation of Mexicans. Toss out the freaking gringos. The cartels are a vital part of their attempt to accomplish this. They love the open borders. They want millions more Mexicans pouring across the border. They aren't illegals to them, they are family. All these open borders traitors want to be the next "El Patron" in the all new mighty nation of the renewed Mexico, which will include half of Texas, All of New Mexico, all the Arizona and half of California. Even parts of Colorado, Nevada and Utah. Sound silly? It's not. They are working furiously towards that end Know some native Mexicans? And they deny it? Well duh….

  6. Anarchy is defined as a wilful association without government. When I think of all the wonderful benefits government has given me over the decades, I'm good with Anarchy. I don't need a lot of governing and I have a rifle to deal with those who do.

  7. As for sending the "gatherers" and "sharers" into the fly-over states, I think that it is more likely to be official / military actions than Burn Loot Murder or Antifa.
    The .gov has only enough deployable force to keep a few major cities under control, and some of that cobtrol will be exercised through food supplies.
    The .gov hates and / or doesn't care about us, so if a few of us "hoarders", "wreckers", and Kulaks have to starve so that the cities can be fed, so be it.
    That such a plan can not work is irrelevant to the Progs / globalists / DemonRats. They have a "plan", so it just HAS to work.
    John in Indy

  8. Pending the contents of JB's address tonight (Thurs, 2-Jun 2022) things COULD go Stupid and LOUD this weekend.

    Night Driver

  9. I wonder about that actually, if we would go for a strong man.

    If the federal government fails, each state, which is already self-governing (despite the best efforts of said Fed), should simply keep governing itself.

    All of the states have water and agricultural land; most of them should be capable of feeding their own residents even if they were cut off from the other states.

    The movement of people from one part to another would be the biggest problem, intranationally as well as internationally.

    States on the borders will have more problems, in that they will suddenly have to do their own border control, and the differences in philosophy between, say, Texas and California, will mean that foreigners potentially have an easy way in along one state's borders, but not another's.

    But it's not like state governors take orders from the federal government, and without federal government instruction the state governments will become paralyzed, helpless, and utterly without authority.

  10. Personally, I think the 'break' will come when the metro areas start running out of food this fall. Baby formula is just the first domino.

  11. The 'break' will be a surprise when it happens. I hope states can stay together and functioning, but in many ways this will be big city versus rural. I suspect ~70% of people voted for Trump but the cheating and reporting have skewed the numbers. This winter there will be a lack of heating, gasoline, diesel and food. If nothing kicks off spontaneously I suspect a false flag to set it off. Also All Cause mortality is up. I fear COVID/Vaxx is not done with us. Loosing electric in August in New York, Chicago, Atlanta or New Orleans would also be a good riot starter – just sayin.

  12. The current contender for a "strong man", at least on the regional level, is Ron Desantis of Florida.

  13. Will, I can see overall mortality on the CDC website and it is up 40% over 2020 (Year 1 of Covid, which was up 20% over 2019). Do you know of a good place to get Cancer statistics? Figures are for 25-45 year group, which should be healthiest group.

  14. There might not be a Balkan-like civil war. Instead, it might be the decentralized chaos I expected during the mid 90's.

  15. Dropped into my local precious metals dealer today (just looking) and he said while he's getting some sales a lot of people are selling because they need money. Another in the list of things that won't end well.
    Prepping is important and getting out of debt is important but one thing that doesn't seem to get mentioned as much is learning to live cheaply. Practice it now so that it is second nature, converting the whole family to frugality at the last minute will be tough.

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