If you’re still not listening, you’re about to run out of time


For years, people like me have been warning that hard times are coming.  For the past year or more, some of us have been hammering on the point that hard times are already here, and they’re going to get worse – a lot worse – before they get better.  Michael Yon has gone so far as to coin an acronym, PANFAWAR (Pandemic, Famine, War) to describe what he sees coming down the pike at us.

Some readers have listened, and some have built up their reserves to an almost incredible extent.  Good for them.  Many of us (including yours truly) aren’t able to do that much, thanks to financial and other constraints;  but we’ve done the best we can within our limited capabilities.

Sadly, others have derided us as alarmists and panic-mongers, and still haven’t done anything to boost their abilities to withstand hard times.  It’s to them that this post is addressed, in a last attempt to get through to them what’s bearing down on us.  It’s worldwide, not just in America, and it’s here, now, staring us in the face.  It’s no longer theory.  It’s unavoidable, undeniable fact.

Rather than use my own words, I’ll let headlines speak for me, along with a few words from each.  Click on any headline to be taken to the article, to read it in full.  They’re in no particular order.

German eggs: Supply no longer secured from summer (original article, in German, here;  Google Translate English version here).

Against the background of massively restricted supply chains and dramatic cost increases, especially for animal feed … From summer 2022 at the latest , the supply of eggs can no longer be guaranteed, writes the Central Association of the German Poultry Industry.

It’s not just poultry

It is not an isolated crisis, but an exemplar of the full collapse of modern agriculture, now in its final moments.

Greenhouses sit empty, unheated, because the price of natural gas is too high.

Fertilizer is not being produced.

Ranchers are not breeding animals — and are already culling — because there is no feed.

Countries have cut off the exports, and there is not enough wheat to go around for importers.

Grow/store everything you can.

And be ready with seeds and ANSWERS as people are going to be waking up in droves and looking for answers, “How could our gov lie to us?”

EU ministers discuss the fear of a global food crisis

Agriculture Ministers of the European Union (EU) are discussing on Monday [03/21] measures to address the consequences of the war in Ukraine on the agri-food sector and the “fears” that it could trigger a “global food crisis” … While the war is not going to jeopardize the food security of the European Union, it could have repercussions on supply in other parts of the world, such as the Middle East or Africa … The war has joined the problems that the agricultural sector was already causing due to the rise in energy or feed prices, the crisis in the pork sector and, in the case of Spain, the drought.

Ukraine: How the global fertilizer shortage is going to affect food security

We are currently witnessing the beginning of a global food crisis, driven by the knock-on effects of a pandemic and more recently the rise in fuel prices and the conflict in Ukraine. There were already clear logistical issues with moving grain and food around the globe, which will now be considerably worse as a result of the war. But a more subtle relationship sits with the link to the nutrients needed to drive high crop yields and quality worldwide.

The World Is Facing A Critical Diesel Shortage

Distillate fuel oil inventories in the United States are 30 million barrels (21%) below the pre-pandemic five-year seasonal average and at the lowest level since 2005, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.

Stocks in Europe are 35 million barrels (8%) below the pre-pandemic five-year average at the lowest level since 2008, Euroilstock, which compiles inventory data on behalf of the European Union, found.

And middle distillate stocks in Singapore are 4 million barrels (32%) below the pre-pandemic five-year average and also at the lowest since 2008, according to the country’s Ministry of Trade and Industry.

Combined inventories across the three locations have fallen by 110 million barrels compared with the same point last year, as consumption has persistently outpaced production.

Demand for diesel and other middle distillates is highly geared to the economic cycle since they are mainly used in freight transportation, manufacturing, farming, mining and oil and gas extraction.

Diesel Crisis —> Food Crisis (Michael Yon)

How many thousands of times have I warned since January 2020 to stock up on food and other essentials? Start the bidding at 2,000 warnings over about 26 months … There are patterns. Nobody needed to wait to know the “vaccines” would explode. Nobody needed to wait two years to start seeing the reality of PanFaWar. Especially so when social arsonists are feeding accelerants into the blaze they started … Ukraine is nothing on the scale of what is unfolding. That said, Ukraine-Russia are an ideal battleground for many reasons such as increased strike on and food, fertilizer, and fuel supplies … But here is the spot where reality lands with a thud and explosion: Fuel, food, no real leadership in any western country — FAMINE.

China agriculture minister says winter wheat condition could be worst in history

Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Tang Renjian said that rare heavy rainfall last year delayed the planting of about one-third of the normal wheat acreage … “Not long ago we went to the grassroots to do a survey and many farming experts and technicians told us that crop conditions this year could be the worst in history,” he said. “This year’s grain production indeed faces huge difficulties.”

The minister’s comments underscore concerns about China’s grain supply at the same time as the war between Russia and Ukraine, which together account for about 29% of global wheat exports, has disrupted supplies causing wheat prices to surge to 14-year highs.

Russia’s Ukraine war threatens to blow US food prices sky-high

“It comes an absolutely horrible time for American consumers because we’re looking every day at inflation almost reaching 10%,” Dan Varroney, a supply chain expert and founder of Potomac Core, told FOX Business. “Last month’s figures were close to 8%. And that means that consumers, including those that are living paycheck to paycheck, are going to pay more for food.”

“Food markets are globalized so, to a certain extent, it’s impossible to avoid the impacts of disruptions like this,” [Caitlin Welsh, the director of the Global Food Security Program] said. “I think that these types of disruptions remind us the extent to which we, you know, the global economy and global agriculture trade is intertwined with the rest of the world.”

Biden about to get caught flat-footed on another crisis: Ukraine war–generated global food shortages

As Reuters notes, countries such as Lebanon, Yemen, and Egypt are going to be hit hard by this crisis.  But other analysts note that the Pacific nations will be hit, too.  Politico reports that the Philippines is making its largest-ever grain orders just to get some kind of cushion for what’s coming down the pike. 

Making matters worse, some countries that could fill the void, such as Argentina, Hungary, and Turkey, are blocking exports to ensure that they have no shortages of their own.

In the U.S., a major problem of another sort is out there — drought and reduced crops owing to bad weather.  That isn’t going to be helpful in helping alleviate this problem overseas, either … last time there was a global grain shortage, and it wasn’t as dangerous as this one, was 2008 — the year the Arab Spring happened.  That presaged revolts and toppled governments, which pretty well had potential for realigning U.S. alliances and friends, usually not in our direction.

[Biden] blamed President Trump.  He blamed companies.  He blamed others.  And his solution?  Harness “the restaurant industry” to feed the hungry.  Today, he’s substituting Putin.  It will be interesting to see how that goes over internationally, as it doesn’t include much in the way of solutions … He wants the other guy to do it.  He doesn’t seem to be offering much from the U.S. to head off the crisis.

Ukraine War Could Put Food Security on Pentagon’s Plate

Now the Pentagon has been urged to study how the disrupted food supply driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will impact security around the world … “Conflict and hunger are closely intertwined–when one escalates, the other usually follows,” said Gilbert F. Houngbo, president of the UN’s International Fund for Agricultural Development, or IFAD, in a statement last week.

Caitlin Welsh, director of the Global Food Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said she frequently tried to get more attention from the Pentagon in conversations about food security while working in the State Department’s Office of Global Food Security.

The fear? Instability in Egypt, Iraq, Syria and Iran, which rely heavily on exports from Ukraine and Russia, Welsh said.

“To the extent that those countries’ security is affected by riots, or protests that threaten regimes, that’s how our interests could be threatened,” she said. 

Food instability and high food prices were one factor that led to the Arab Spring in the early 2010s, said Molly Jahn, a professor of agronomy at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Friends, if you can read those headlines and articles and still put off building up at least some food security for yourself and your family, I don’t know what to say to you.  The sand in the hourglass has just about run out.  These warnings used to be largely voiced by “preppers” and those who’d experienced previous conflicts, shortages and famines themselves (the latter including yours truly).  Now they’re coming from all over;  governments, national and international organizations, experts, whatever.  If you aren’t listening, there’s an old proverb that applies to you:  “There are none so deaf as those who will not hear”.

Phil, over at Bustednuckles, shares my outlook.

All of us are getting price shocks every time we turn around.

I spend a lot of time keeping up with what is going on.

Everywhere I went on the tubes last night was someone else saying it is going to get much, much worse.

As in 10% inflation, PER MONTH.

We are looking at $10 a gallon milk and everything else is going to go through the roof also.

IF, you can find it.

The ripple effects of the Supply Chain fiasco, the Truckers strikes, the failing Farm production, we are in for a scenario that hasn’t been seen since WWII and the Rationing.

Quit putting it off people, get you a pantry going.

From what I am seeing, there isn’t any relief in sight until AFTER next year.

If we make it that long.

God help us.




  1. I just went and converted some more of my savings into precious metals, I believe the best investment in terms of safety is pre 64 US coinage. There is already a precedent for gold confiscation in this country. Uncoined silver could face the same problem IMO.
    Anyway the guys I use are just a small storefront operation, but the said that lately they've done half a million in silver and a quarter million in gold. Obviously some people are getting it.
    I realize that it is considered to be a bad idea to put the majority of one's money in any one type of investment, but then i think of Wei2000mar Germany, 70s Chile, 2000 Argentina, current Venezuela and I buy more silver.

  2. Beans, band aides and bullets have been on the top of my investment list for quite a few years now. I am going to look at putting more canned tuna and canned chicken aside. Both are versatile and have a long shelf life. I saw this while surfing the web today.


    With the spread of avian flu here chicken prices will be going trough the roof as well. We have a dozen Golden Comet laying hens and 14 Black Australorp dual purpose chickens including two roosters. I just placed an order for more seeds to replace all the ones we are planting this year and I like to keep, 2-3 years of seeds on hand. Arriving shortly are 300 strawberry plants which will go into two separate gardens, one with ever bearers and one with June bearers to supplement our blueberry, raspberry and blackberry patches.

    Peter I have given up trying to get folks to get prepared because if they have not realized just how dire the situation is globally by now it is too late to get them on board. I believe Yon is correct and times will not only get worse, we are on the edge of a disaster of biblical proportions. Famines are not new but generally they are quite regional in nature and what we may see will be global in scale.

    Oh if you have pets do not forget to stock up for them as well. The cost of pet foods is sky rocketing and there are major stock outs on those items as well.


    GOD bLESS,,,

  3. Picked up 50# of powdered milk, put it in ziplock bags and then 5 gallon buckets. That makes 100# of powdered milk. The first 50# I bought last year, it cost $90, this one cost $127.

    My diabetes has been held in check (no drugs) by eating keto, but that may soon not be an option. There's only so much canned meat (although I did score a box of 6 #10 cans of beef) that I can store in the middle of a move.

    It looks like I can eat more carbs IF they are complex instead of simple, I have them for breakfast and am physically active throughout the day. A bowl of oatmeal will elevate my blood sugar for 6 -8 hours, but if I'm using that blood sugar, it is ok. Still no white rice, bread or sugar unless I am continually eating tiny bites while working, the body converts that too quickly and my blood sugar spikes. Think holding an orange section on your mouth and gently sucking on it, taking 20 minutes to consume. Other diabetics, YMMV. Test while the supplies are available and see how your body responds.

  4. Yep, things are getting tighter. And the majority are ignoring it or bitching at the store managers about 'why' their favorite items are missing.

  5. Question: should I pay off a sizable debt and thus get rid of a big monthly payment or stock up some more?

  6. For Unknown:

    "The rich rules over the poor, and the borrower becomes the lender’s slave." Proverbs 22:7

    If you can, pay off the debt and then work to take care of your family. For decades Dave Ramsey and others have helped Christians get out of debt and to live Godly lives by taking care of their finances in a more scriptural manner.

    Consider the housing crunch in 2008 and 09. How many people were essentially renting their houses after purchasing them with no money down and low interest rates. When they went upside down, they lost their house and whatever else the bank could grab.

    Just a thought.

  7. During the Great Depression banker got their money back with the aid of the Sheriffs, often at on the Courthouse steps as homes and farms were sold off at sweetheart deals to bankers.

    Blackrock is going to make a killing on real-estate soon enough.

    Always find some way to pay the Dane-Guild or lose your home.

  8. You wrote, "Sadly, others have derided us as alarmists and panic-mongers, and still haven't done anything to boost their abilities to withstand hard times."

    Do not assume those of us who disagree with you are not prepared. Long time readers of your blog, myself included, ARE prepared. Yes, . . . we are. Thank you for your concern.

    I wrote something many months ago in response to a post you made concerning the above topic. Except for two other responders to that day's entry, what I wrote was almost entirely scoffed at and my character quickly impugned. It was like, "How dare I oppose what Bayou Renaissance Man had written? Who was I? Nobody should seriously disagree with Bayou Renaissance Man. You, you, . . . probably don't HAVE any preparations, I've met people like you. What are you doing on this website anyway?"

    What you write IS alarmist. To back it up, you cite those who are even more alarmist. When questioned, in response, you cite the very super alarmist sources that were called into question. It's like, " . . . . you can't disagree with this (maybe something else, but not this!)!"

    Are hard times here? Of course. Is a famine coming? I hope so. Seriously. The world needs it. Beginning with America.

    I attend gun shows frequently. Most of the people I observe hovering over all the tables set out by the preppers have long lost sight of their belt buckles, years ago.  32.5 percent of American adults are overweight. 36.5 percent of Americans are obese.

  9. To pay off debt, or not to pay off debt? That is the question.
    Tis better to suffer the slings and arrows of tight budgets, when bearable. For in truth, once on the other side, those old money debts pale in comparison to new money incomes. Ah, but surviving the lean times comes at a heavy cost and mayhaps not always be possible. There's the rub.

  10. "Are hard times here? Of course. Is a famine coming? I hope so. Seriously. The world needs it. Beginning with America."

    Did you read your post before you hit send?

    Do you really think a bit 'O Famine might be GOOD for those Obese Americans?

    A bit 'O Famine is a lot like a little bit pregnant. And the resolution for both is either death or the painful birth of a new creation.

    IF your prepped why get wound up that folks are announcing even MOAR reasons to get prepped? If your not well, feel free to cry about alarmist article and even MOAR alarmist articles.

    BTW Hard Times are NOT HERE YET. But they are coming as part of the Plan of those that want chaos and troubles in order to "Establish" their plans for world peace.

    Starvation is the tyrants cheapest weapon. Getting "a rifle behind each blade of grass" to shoot each other is far easier than bringing in Troops.

    I suggest folks think HARD about trading in some of those bits of gold and silver for dry beans and rice. Because you're not going to like MY Price for food when you NEED to trade those PM's then.

    BTW you'll be trading with wolves, not sheep. Be polite as per Robert Heinlein.

    Gold and silver is assuming that normal rule of law exists and that the powers that be don't do a President Roosevelt and simply make PM's illegal to be turned in for Electronic Dollars.

    1. Disagree slightly Mike. If we suffer total societal collapse then, yes, gold silver won't be as useful as food and ammo. (As far as govt confiscation, FDR only got what was kept by people in banks. That was the common place in rhe 30s to keep it. Not any more. Most people don't trust banks now to hold their metals or much else, and door to door confiscation is impractical and unlikely to work).

      But the total collapse you envision is far less likely than an Argentina 2000s hyperinflation. If you read Ferdal's account of his experiences there you'll find that gold, silver, junk jewelry, meds, all kinds of things were highly prized for the kind of barter economy that developed.

      And before we get to a total collapse you envision we will almost certainly have a 1930s type Spanish civil war where the military splits loyalties and the country is divided up by how where the military goes. Things will function but it will be a lot of barter and home grown solutions.

      My rule of thumb is use your precious resources now to prepare for the most likely scenario. Total collapse isn't most likely. Possible for sure but not most likely.

  11. Yes, some people are in favor of a global culling of those to lazy or stupid to make themselves perfect examples of human fitness and resilience…

    Not something I endorse or look forward to. Always interesting to see peoples thoughts out in the open. Gives you some indication who to gravitate towards or away from.

    @tweell yeah, as a type II diabetic, there's more carbs than I'd like in my mid-term pantry. I'll likely use a combination of eating less, spacing it out and scrounging for more protein. Really depends on what all happens right.

  12. I don't often comment on blogs, but this one is really important and bears more discussion. I strongly encourage your talking to your neighbors and family about their situations, esp if they see you as thoughtful and wise. They may listen. They may have ideas of their own that you would find useful. There is always time to learn more, even if you run out of time to DO more.

    I live outside a small semi-rural county seat in Central Virginia. The town limits end and you are suddenly in farmland. I can barely see my nearest neighbor's house. In 2005, I was absolutely sure that H5N1 was going to be the Great Pandemic of my lifetime. I made up flyers and lists and…and…and distributed them to the entire road. Almost no one contacted me in any kind of a follow-up. Except the lady across the road who asked me if I really did all the things I suggested. I replied, "Of course," and added that since so many viruses attack your lungs, she would do well to quit smoking and get in better shape. She did, and weathered the Covid crisis pretty well.

    Since then, I've met most of my neighbors ("Hey, I'm missing a dog…") and found them to be educated, sensible, and not prone to panic. How prepared they are, I have no idea, but I do know that they aren't snowflakes or nutcases and can be called on to help out when needed. Most of them have gardens and raise livestock so I'm guessing they have at least one prepper gene telling them to get their acts together.

    On a farm, many things happen, and often another pair of hands (or a front-end loader and a chain saw!) is needed. When it snows, someone fires up their tractor and plows the road long before the state guys show up. When someone's house caught on fire, people just driving by stopped to help out while waiting for the firetrucks to arrive. When a horse trailer ends up in a ditch, the winches show up. A fallen tree across the road brings out anonymous chain sawyers who just deal with it and move on. The sound of gunfire is an almost daily occurrence. Several families have their own ranges behind their houses. Some of them are First Responders.

    We are a community of like-minded people who know the importance of friends in low places, even if we can't tell you the names of the families two lanes down.

    I know it is risky to ignore OPSEC, and I know my neighbors know my philosophies and politics. Do I trust them? No, not in the classical sense – few know the details of my life, my income, my family. None of them have ever been in my home, nor I theirs, despite living here for 25 years. But they do know that the Storm is coming and we will have to all count on each other. When the bell rings, help will come.

    That is the greatest prep of all.

  13. Parking your money in cancelled debt may not be wise.
    Today's world of credit is not that simplified as yesteryear. Cancelling debt depends on who holds the debt. And what form of debt.

    If it is a bank-owned home mortgage, pay it off.
    If it is a bank credit card, maybe pay it down but not completely. I base this on what happened to my brother.

    He paid off, as in zero balance, a credit card. In response, the bank cancelled the card, closed another account, and significantly dinged his credit report. Beyond that, I do not know the particulars.

    I will say from mine own experience that banks will lie to you. Si don't ask them what will happen if you pay off a bank-owned debt.

    Carrying some debt may be worthwhile at least because you remain cash on hand.

    Myself, I haven't had a credit card in decades. I got so fed up with the games involving MY wealth that it was either that or I shoot anyone that moves.

    I only use credit unions but ignore their 3rd party solicitations.

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