John Williams of Shadowstats on potential hyperinflation


We’ve met John Williams in these pages many times before, albeit indirectly.  He runs Shadowstats, which calculates official economic statistics according to traditional norms rather than the politically-correctified mumbo-jumbo so beloved of bureaucrats and their political masters.  He’s long pointed out that the official inflation rate grossly undercalculates the actual rise in prices “on the street”.

In a recent interview with USAWatchdog, he looked at current economic developments with his usual incisive analysis.  Bold, underlined text is my emphasis.

Economist John Williams, founder of, says the Federal Reserve has painted itself into such a tight corner with the economy it really has only two choices.  Williams says it comes down to “Inflation or Implosion.” What would happen to the financial system if the Fed stopped printing massive amounts of money for stimulus and debt service?  Williams explains, “You could see financial implosion by preventing liquidity being put into the system.  The system needs liquidity (freshly created dollars) to function. Without that liquidity, you would see more of an economic implosion than you have already seen.  In fact, I will contend that the headline pandemic numbers have actually been a lot worse than they have been reporting.  It also means we are not recovering quite as quickly.  The Fed needs to keep the banking system afloat.  They want to keep the economy afloat.  All that requires a tremendous influx of liquidity in these difficult times.”

So, is the choice inflation or implosion?  Williams says, “That’s the choice, and I think we are going to have a combination of both of them.  I think we are eventually headed into a hyperinflationary economic collapse.  It’s not that we haven’t been in an economic collapse already, we are coming back some now. . . . The Fed has been creating money at a pace that has never been seen before.  You are basically up 75% (in money creation) year over year.  This is unprecedented.  Normally, it might be up 1% or 2% year over year.  The exploding money supply will lead to inflation.  I am not saying we are going to get to 75% inflation—yet, but you are getting up to the 4% or 5% range, and you are soon going to be seeing 10% range year over year. . . . The Fed has lost control of inflation.”

And remember, when the Fed has to admit the official inflation rate is 10%, John Williams says, “When they have to admit the inflation rate is 10%, my number is going to be up to around 15% or higher.  My number rides on top of their number.”

Right now, the inflation rate is above 11%.

. . .

When will the worst inflation be hitting America?  Williams predicts, “I am looking down the road, and in early 2022, I am looking for something close to a hyperinflationary circumstance and effectively a collapsed economy.

There’s more at the link, plus the full interview on video.  Recommended.

My views align closely with those of Mr. Williams.  We’re on an ever-steepening inflationary curve, and accelerating fast.  I’m not looking forward to the next few years.

One practical precaution Miss D. and I are taking is to expand our “deep pantry”.  We’ve long tried to keep extra food on hand in case of emergency, but we haven’t had the space or the funds to do so on a large scale.  We still don’t . . . but we can read the signs of the times as well as anyone.  We’ve accordingly bought a chest freezer, which we’ve parked in the garage, to have more frozen food on hand in case of need.  We’ve also expanded our canned food storage to a certain extent, and we’re making sure to keep it topped up, replacing cans as we consume them.  There may be times ahead when we can’t afford to buy all the food we need;  so, if that happens, we want something upon which to fall back.  I know others, wise to the signs of the times, who are doing the same thing for the same reason.



  1. Peter, consider joining a CSA, or local farmer for beef in freezer. Get canning supplies now; they were scarce last year. Grow and dry as much stuff as you can. Stock up on the stuff you don't make, like laundry soap. Get 5 gallon buckets. Get blue barrels and harvest your rain from the roof. Jennifer

  2. If you have a freezer with 6 months of food, you're still starving if the power goes out.

    Generators are good to have, but noisy so that the starving hoards will know who's running one. That means they just found a good target.

    Canned and freeze dried food might be the best alternative, but be aware of odors.

  3. A small freezer will run just fine off a couple of solar panels and an inverter/battery combo. In the short term, it will run fine off your car battery and the inverter. Your car is pretty quiet when running, and an effective if inefficient way to recharge your battery.

    I've got a bunch of Coleman 12v coolers with thermoelectric cooling/heating. At least one was made by Dometic, the leading name in that sort of thing. They are surprisingly cheap at yard and estate sales. They will freeze small quantities of stuff, and will keep the whole cooler cold.

    A desktop "soda" fridge is also usually based on thermoelectric cooling, and can be converted to run on 12v. Anyone who has medicine that needs to be kept cold should have at least one cooler that will run on 12v.

    With a bit of looking and some luck, you might score an RV fridge/freezer from a rotten old trailer that runs on propane. Propane stores well for really long periods of time.

    Or, spend the money on new. Dometic has an email list you can sign up for, and they have periodic sales.

    My larger point is that 'there is always another way.'


    1. If you truly believe that the hurt will last beyond even 6 months, you have to grow your own food. Even without significant yard space, there are plenty of videos out there teaching how to grow food indoors and in 5 gallon buckets on the driveway or porch. Lists of things to grow differ but prioritize easy to grow high calorie high nutrition. For my money, potatoes are near the top. Start experimenting now. There are hydroponic systems that grow veggies without dirt, just nutrient laden water. Locate yourself in a rural area where you can barter w people who raise chickens or cattle etc… We can't survive alone for long. We aren't Grizzly Adams most of us so choose your neighborhood wisely while you can.

  4. A cheap way to fill up food preps is to patronize a salvage grocery. They get bulk products from suppliers when they are close to their end date, freezing or canning ends the expiration date worry. Just some examples from the last month, Jimmy Dean 1# rolls of sausage (can be canned) for $1, N name brand boxes of granola bars (12 per) $1, 26 oz can of hunts pasta sauce $1, frozen precooked Ball Park bacon and cheese burgers 2/$3,etc. The stock changes all the time and when it is gone it is gone. Even if you don't want them as preps, you can greatly reduce current grocery bills and put the money somewhere more useful.

  5. Plant potatoes even in your flower garden. Will not harm the flowers, looks good and whatever you don't harvest this year will volunteer next year.

    Hey if they do that in NH in my garden and compost pile they will for you.

    Almost nobody notices the potato plants unless they are a real gardener.

  6. Tweell said– "Good as far as it goes, but what do you do about the 3 (or 7) years after the stash runs out?"

    — why do anything? Why save for retirement? Why go to work at all? Why not get high all the time? Why not just end it all today?

    Don't get caught in this trap.

    START with a week, then build to two, then 4, then 8 then as long as you have time, budget and opportunity to do.

    No one ever said that some food on the shelf was the whole answer, but if and when hard times come, it will be a lot easier transition with some food on the shelf than it will be with NO food on the shelf.

    Maybe you're dead a year after the war/CME/zombie uprising. Maybe you're NOT. Maybe you are slaving for the mutant overlord, maybe you ARE the overlord. Or maybe the troubles end before your food runs out.

    Don't let one possibility stop you from preparing for the myriad of other possible outcomes.


    And to answer the question… Your food helps you thru the transition to whatever comes next. Whether you are getting your garden expanded, (have the tools, supplements, poisons, and seeds on hand), finding your place in the new barter economy (hope you built up some stores, or have a useful skill or particular knowledge), or if you are dying from a tooth abscess, SOMETHING IS BETTER THAN NOTHING.

    Your preps buy you TIME. They give you CHOICES. They give you a CHANCE.

  7. Peter,
    The Mormon Church sells wholesome long-term storage food. The prices are lower than some of the commercial concerns. You don't have to be a Mormon (I'm Not. I'm Serbian Orthodox), but you do have to create a Church account. They sell food in cases of #10 cans. Below are some products that are in stock. If it has a price on it, it is in stock.

    Hard White Wheat
    Case of six cans
    $36.40 USD
    White Flour
    Case of six cans
    $36.05 USD
    Quick Oats
    Case of six cans
    $34.25 USD
    Black Beans
    Case of six cans
    $48.85 USD
    Pinto Beans
    Case of six cans
    $47.40 USD
    White Beans
    Case of six cans
    $52.85 USD
    Hard Red Wheat
    Case of six cans
    $36.25 USD

  8. Solar freezers are great, we have three. They run on 12 or 24 volts DC. They use very little power because they are super insulated, 4 inches of insulation all around. Check out the Sundance brand.

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