Michael Yon: “I am warning and warning and warning that we are steaming straight into civil war”


Michael Yon has become nationally known through his reporting from Iraq and Afghanistan during the first two decades of the 21st century.  He’s generally been prescient in his predictions, and despite attracting official ire for his no-holds-barred criticism of mistakes and misguided policies, he’s been proven right more often than not.

He foresees serious conflict in the USA in the immediate future.

The United States is heating up. Rewind to my cautions in 2019, and especially in January 2020 about pandemic from China.

Since fall of 2020, I warned many times, specifically, that April 2021 would start serious violence in the United States. Witness now. It’s starting. Again, some folks try to mind read and say, “You predict violence because you want it.” This is foolish. This is accusing a doctor warning about smoking because the doctor wants to spread lung cancer.

I am warning and warning and warning that we are steaming straight into civil war. War sucks, to put it lightly. And it rarely turns out how anyone predicts, other than bad.

Many folks ask me about specific sparks. What could spark it? This is akin to asking which raindrop will case the flood. Which mosquito brought the malaria. It’s about conditions.

It’s about conditions.

You will often hear military professionals — the serious professionals, not to be confused with careers — talking about conditions.

Medical professionals using similar language. Serious economists, too. Or old wise men like Thomas Sowell. Dr. Sowell understands conditions and culture. Interesting thing about Dr. Sowell is that he is an academic. I travel far more than Dr. Sowell, but Dr. Sowell describes very accurately things I see around the world. When I read his words or hear Dr. Sowell talk, I say, “Yes, this is true yet again.” Dr. Sowell is very accurate.

Such as overseas Chinese thriving wherever their seed lands, but not thriving so well in China. Likewise with Indians and India.

Pre-existing conditions. In the United States, conditions for internal conflict are increasing.

But what will the spark be? Does not matter. It’s about the conditions. When conditions are set, a spark will arrive. More accurately, there always are sparks, but sparks do not go far in a rainforest, or in a desert without fuel.

It’s about general health. Doctors don’t try to tell us which specific germ will get us. They talk more about setting conditions for health. Such as keeping clean, eating well.

Likewise the forestry experts will talk about conditions for wildfires. Dry forest. Uncleared undergrowth. No Indians managing the fuel load with traditional burns.

Mr. Yon knows whereof he speaks.  Many observers (including myself) know whereof we speak, because we have the prior experience that makes it possible for us to judge what we’re seeing around us, identify the patterns in society, and know what’s coming.

I’ve tried on many occasions to warn you, dear readers, that we’re in for a torrid time of it.  The Republic founded by our forefathers is almost on its last legs.  We can do nothing, and watch it expire, and live with the consequences . . . or we can resist current trends, and try to get back to the solid foundations our forefathers laid for us.  They’re still there, and they’re still solid.  They have not decayed.  Instead, we have allowed our nation to be almost completely levered off those foundations, so that they no longer support it.

If it comes to civil war, as Mr. Yon warns, it’ll be our job to lever the republic back onto those foundations.  It’s likely to be a long, costly, and probably bloody process – but it has to be done, because unless we do so, the republic will finally and terminally collapse.

Forewarned is forearmed.  Please conduct yourselves, and plan, accordingly.



  1. IMHO, we're past last legs.

    I just hop[e that the restoration can be accomplished with a minimum of sturm und drang.

  2. Indeed, this is where we're at; we either become a dysfunctional zombie country like Mexico, or we fight back. Either way, everything breaks. There's no in between… Too many gave too much for me to give up on America. I'm for fighting back…

  3. I see America arming up and gearing up for something… 400 million guns in America, trillions of rounds of ammo in private hands…. and 1.9 million background checks just last month. It's an unspoken, unacknowledged buildup of arms. People *THINK* they are arming up for "self-protection" but what is really going on is that something dark and violent is slouching this toward America in the depths of the night and we won't see it until it's at our doors or in our neighborhoods. This would be a good time to get to know your neighbors, discern who you can and can't trust, and know the difference.

    Bottom line is, if you haven't spent the last couple of years preparing, you probably won't make it.

    1. People buy guns because they realize there are people that need killing and they will have to do it.

  4. Okay, We the People are gearing up for Civil War II. Whatever's right, I guess. What I'd seriously like to know is who the various Civil War factions are, and what does each faction want? And, while we're at it, who are the leaders of each faction? Because frankly, I don't see any of this happening.

    What I see happening is preparation for a famine that's just over the horizon, but never gets around to arriving. Kind of like the California Big One, which will adjust real estate values in California.

  5. "What I'd seriously like to know is who the various Civil War factions are, and what does each faction want? And, while we're at it, who are the leaders of each faction? "

    Left – Communists, blacks, Latinos, and Asians. All with their own leaders. All of whom hate each other. The only thing holding them together is cultural Marxism and hatred of the Right. But man, are they organized, funded, and backed by most of the government and all the media and educational establishments. At least there are only about 100 million of them.

    Right – Traditional white Americans. We have no leadership. There are about 120 million of us.

    Middle – Values mostly follow the right, but listen to the Left. Sheeple who will mostly just do as they're told. About 100 million people.

  6. I'll repeat it yet again.
    The Communists have sworn, since 1945, that they want to see this land covered with blood from shore to shore: it doesn't matter whose.

  7. There is a mood, and I can hardly define it, other than to use the words Tolkien puts in the mouth of Gandalf in Minas Tirith: "It is the deep breath before the plunge." We keep intaking, and intaking.

    And then, comes the jump.

  8. "If the foundations were solid, why are we here, in this time, in this condition?"

    Because for more than 100 years, the Left (Communists) have been working to destroy and undermine those foundations. They have taken over the media, education, entertainment, and the Deep State. They have used the freedoms in the Constitution to work to undermine us. There were many that warned about this but the Media and others made fun of them. The Media became clear that they were shills for the Democrats (Communists). The Deep state became clear during Trumps time.

  9. Yon is a moron. He does not even define Civil War. Many commenters have implicitly made this point. Not sure why Yon’s internal AI thinks this is in his interest to write. I do agree with his premises however——we have lots of kindling. But we always have kindling.

    He also does not define what the military would do—-as if they themselves will take sides. If the Government is on one side, that would be bizarre. Even the South just wanted out.

    Yon is predicting violent anarchy, a lot different than civil war. That is also moronic. No one really cares about any of the political crap—-other than playing smart tough guy on Twitter.

  10. I wrote a month ago that at minimum, a schism of the republic was almost certain now.

    There is no longer any kind of "centrist" position in our politics. I do not see how a dissolution of the country is avoidable. Avoidance will require sincere and enduring compromises of politics from both Left and Right, compromises that are not actually possible because they would require the surrender of fundamental tenets of political belief. That is not going to happen.

    So what will be the tripwire for us? I think it will be the 2022 mid-terms. No matter which party comes out ahead, the result will be soundly rejected by the other side. I pray that the aftermath will be peaceful, but I am not going to bet any money on it. But the United States as we have known it until now will begin dissolving then.

    God, I hope I am wrong.

  11. I wouldn't characterize it as Civil War II. American Revolution 2.0 seems more apt.
    We have an authoritarian government that is increasingly denying us our rights and a say in our own governance.
    The difference is we have a template the Founders did not for what comes after. Considering the character of the two sides and our legacy, along with the outcomes of asymmetrical warfare in our last several conflicts I consider it likely freedom in some form will prevail.
    The most worrisome aspect of it, besides the general carnage and misery of war is what China, Russia and Iran, along with whatever allies they have, might do to take advantage of our consuming turmoil. The presence of our nuclear arsenal would presumably forestall anything too rash, unless those who possessed it made common cause with one or more of our enemies.
    It will be an extraordinarily dangerous time. Anyone who says it isn't coming does not understand the implacable nature of our totalitarian enemies.

  12. The leftists, dominating virtually every facet of our society, should take a moment's break from their hubris and arrogance. If in their ignorance and hostility, they precipitate hostilities within this nation, the unintended consequences not only to this nation but the world will be enormous. Civil war in America will remove a stability thus ensuring other conflicts will ignite some of which may very well go nuclear. Disruption of the food supplies will wipe out millions and spread disease. Unlike our first civil war, there will be no protection from the oceans with which we have been blessed. Disruption of our military command and control may embolden our enemies to use EMP to complete our destruction. In short, such a calamity could issue in a new dark age. And China, would become the new winner and the rule of law the loser.

  13. The Codevilla article linked above actually shows that there is actually overwhelming consensus in society on what the problem is. The division seems to be over what to do about it. If you think about it, that's a very clever strategy by the oligarchs; it allows them to operate in the wide open while squelching any attempt to actually do something about it through division.

  14. Are there divisions in this country? Absolutely. Are they being driven by the rival factions? I'm not convinced. The free and open nature of our media is a both a strength and a weakness. Russia and China may both have nuclear bombs, but their most dangerous weapons are cyber and propaganda. We are being set up to destroy ourselves so they don't have to. It isn't just the "MSM"; it's whatever outlet is feeding you the outrage that most appeals to you. Are you chomping at the bit to set things right a via "Revolution 2.0"? Congratulations! You've been compromised by the real enemies of America. Meanwhile, the other side of the aisle has its own urge to purge that's being fed to them too. None of it is subtle–it no longer has to be, since we are all so media-savvy that we can discern the truth from the millions of lies offered to us each day: There's a war on Christianity. All police are white supremacists. Muslims want to destroy civilization. All refugees are murderers and rapists. All whites are the devil. Keep clicking, and you'll eventually find a truth that resonates with you. We all know the analogy of the Blue Pill vs Red Pill. Nobody ever points out that you are told you have to take one or the other; refusing to swallow any of it is never an option.

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