We’re no longer preparing for an emergency. The emergency is HERE.


I’ve long since lost count of the warnings I’ve given, and quoted from others, about the need to prepare for hard times, build up domestic supplies of essentials, and generally fortify our lifestyles to withstand hard times.

I’m not going to issue any more warnings, because THE HARD TIMES ARE NOW HERE.  There’s no getting away from them.  The combination of COVID-19 and the lame-brained official responses to it, the war in Ukraine, and other crises have tipped us over the edge.  Personally, I think the fall will be a long one with a hard landing.

The supply chain crunch, about which we’ve written often, is going to be taking center stage for a few years, because it’s going to be the root cause of much of the disruption, not just in our personal situations, but in the economic life of every country in the world.  Freightwaves reports:

We are witnessing the remaking of the world order in front of our eyes — and this will impact global supply chains in unforeseen ways.

We are about to experience the most dramatic and unpredictable supply chain map we’ve experienced since World War II.

If the Russia-Ukraine conflict’s international ramifications keep spreading, we face a real possibility of a bifurcating global economy, in which geopolitical alliances, energy and food flows, currency systems, and trade lanes could split.

During the first Cold War, the world was anything but flat. There were two worlds — the East and the West. That world is being recreated as we speak, and with it, Western companies will start to shift sourcing away from the East and more toward Western and neutral states. North American economic integration will become a new priority. Surface transportation across the Eurasian continent will become more complex, and possibly contested.

Entire supply chains will be rewritten, with new sources and partners — all in the interest of corporate and national security. This will create massive volatility and unpredictability.

Companies will prioritize vendors that can provide consistent and dependable supplies, likely paying a premium. In the end, those costs will be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.

While prices will become an important consideration for consumers, brands that offer a consistently and predictably available set of choices will enjoy pricing power. 

The future market winners will be the corporations that make the investments in supply chain infrastructure and reliable, Western-friendly production locations.

There’s more at the link.

Commander Zero considers how that reality is likely to play out for us.

Let’s look at things objectively. Inflation is among us, whittling away your saved money. Agreed? And fuel prices, which were already moving north, are going to definitely be going up now that World War Three is finally on deck. So..we can agree that fuel prices aren’t likely to come down anytime soon. Agreed? And we know that businesses do not stay in business by operating at a loss. Increases in costs (esp. due to that increased fuel costs) and shortages of material/manpower mean that consumer prices have to go…up.

So what you’ve got here, m’friend, is a virtual certainty that literally everything you buy is going to not go down in price, will likely not stay at its current price, and is pretty much guaranteed to increase in price. Assuming its even available. And not rationed.

I recommend that you cut the fat out of your budget, skip buying the jet ski, big TV, or skip the vacation, and funnel that money into food, ammo, fuel, clothes, diapers, or whatever else you buy often and want to avoid paying more for. Or that you don’t want to risk availability issues.

I’m not saying that because I think T-62’s and Russian paratroops are gonna be landing on our shores. I’m saying it because there’s at least a a half-dozen catalysts (war, inflation, pandemic, etc.) on the loose that by themselves would be cause for heightened awareness and thoughtfulness. But theres more than one… and their effect is synergistic.

If you’ve got a family or partner/spouse who thinks you’ve always been ‘a little out there’ with ‘all that survivalist nonsense’ you’re gonna have a rough time of it. You’re gonna have to decide if incurring the wrath of those close to you is worth giving them the margin of safety that comes from sacrificing the trip to Hawaii and buying canned goods instead. I don’t envy you. But sometimes you’ve got to get all 1950’s and put your foot down and say “I’m doing this because I believe it’s the right thing to do for us, to keep us safe, to keep us secure, and I make no apologies for it.”

. . .

In all likelihood at this time next year things will look a lot like they do now…we’ll still go to work, we’ll still have hot water and electricity, we’ll still go to CostCo on the weekends. I’d put it at the high 90% range. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t going to be hiccups between now and then. Do the things necessary to smooth out any bumps in the road that may appear.

Again, more at the link.

Phil, writing at Bustednuckles, is also very worried about the way things are going.  I wish I could disagree with him – but I can’t.  (Read his comments in the light of our discussion earlier this morning, about the possibility that all our current crises are engineered rather than random.  I think he’s seeing, or suspecting, the same thing I am.)

One of the issues that I have trying to communicate my concerns to The Wifely Unit is that she doesn’t ever look down the road. She pretty much lives in a week to week mode.

I try to look at things in a year to year mode at the very least.

. . .

What has me worried at the moment is the long term consequences of this war in Ukraine regarding prices and availability of quite a few commodities.

Between Russia and Ukraine, they produce ONE QUARTER of the entire World Supply of Wheat.

Corn is another biggie.

Not to mention scads of other things that are already in limited supply.

Ask any European about natural gas supply issues, they are screwed if Russia decides to shut the valve off.

Right now this morning, oil has already went over $104 a barrel, Wheat futures are skyrocketing, Gold has hit $2,000 an ounce at least once…

. . .

There is Blood in the water.

The food supply issues are only going to get worse.

Farmers are paying up to 4X more for fertilizer, if they can find it, than last year and many are saying they aren’t going to be able to plant Corn this year.


There are no Government food stockpiles anymore.

You are on your own.

Inflation is already causing serious problems as it is causing things like food and gasoline to eat up bigger and bigger portions of incomes.

Now throw in these projected shortages on top of that.

Things are going to get real ugly in the coming months.

All of this is happening by design, I have said repeatedly that the Commie’s favorite weapon is food, it looks like the fiends from the WEF are well aware of the power it represents when you control the food and energy supplies for an entire planet.

Just for giggles add in the Chinky Flu and their Death Jab program and maybe you will start to get an inkling of just how devious and serious these people are about wiping out large sections of the population.

Because we are on our own, I am not just sitting here watching all of this happening while sitting on my thumb and bitching about it.

I very strongly suggest that everyone else take a good look around at what is coming and take appropriate measures.

More at the link.

Finally, here’s a perspective from the Philippines, where an expatriate American blogger writing at “Come And Make It” says bluntly that “Current News Trendlines point to WW3“.  He’s seeing the impact of worldwide economic problems on a Third World society, where they’re having a magnified effect on life because people have fewer reserves and less wealth with which to cope with or offset them.  From that perspective, things must look bleak indeed right now.  (Read the last few weeks’ posts at “Come And Make It” for a more detailed look at how current events are impacting the Third World.  Multiply that by the several billions of people affected by them, and you’ll get some idea of how bad things are worldwide.)

We’ve already covered the basics of putting aside a reserve of food, an emergency reserve of cash, and so on.  Right now, one has to think about the value of that cash reserve, which is being eaten away by inflation every week.  If you had $10,000 in the bank at the beginning of 2022, I reckon that by the end of this year, it’ll buy goods that cost only about $7,000-$8,000 in January 2022.  That’s because its buying power will have been eroded by inflation.  The question therefore becomes, what’s the best thing to do with that cash?  You absolutely do need an emergency cash reserve – no question about that – but if you have more than the minimum, this might be a good time to put it to work.

Are there durable goods that you need to buy, or can foresee buying in the short to medium term?  I’m thinking of HVAC systems, major appliances (fridge, freezer, washer, dryer, etc.), a motor vehicle, and so on.  If you’re likely to need one or more of those things over the next one to three years, it might not be a bad idea to buy them now, while they can still be found relatively easily and inflation hasn’t driven their price through the roof.  The same goes for expensive consumables such as tires for your car.  If you know you’re likely to need them in the foreseeable future, it might be very worthwhile to buy them now and put them away until needed, because by the time you need them, you may not be able to afford them.

Another thing is to stockpile small reserves of things you need every day, but which might face supply interruptions from time to time.  Consider keeping a tank’s worth of gasoline for your vehicles in approved containers, in a safe place – NOT inside your home!  Put aside an extra container of laundry detergent, an extra pack of air filters for your home’s HVAC system, and so on.  I don’t expect any of them to become unavailable for extended periods, but short-term interruptions in supply are more and more likely.  Such precautions will help you get through those times.

Just a few thoughts.



  1. Also, if I may set up a chaos kit-Training. Yours may vary from mine but here's a start to think it out.

    Nothing like awakening to a broke window during a snowstorm. Is it a branch through the window or a thug+ coming to visit? Do you have clothing and SHOES as not to cut your feet responding to this situation? Do you have a defensive weapon and flashlight to ID the problem?

    Did you train your family so your spouse has her defensive weapon and is securing the kids rooms?

    If it's just a broken window, do you have sheet plastic, nails, wood strips and tools to quickly repair it? If the power is out do you have the ability to clean up that broken glass so it's not a hazard?

    Do you have duress codes to indicate who each other are and if they are under duress? Do you have rally points if fleeing the house is needed?

    As an EMS nothing is so heartbreaking to respond to a home fire and see folks frantically looking for their kid. Have a rally point.

    Fire extinguishers do you have them? Are they near points of potential fire for use? Are they still good? Dry Chemical Fire Extinguishers need to have a yearly turn over and rubber mallet the bottom as they cake up and you don't get the dry chemical spray you were needing.

    Fire you can literally have but minutes to smother it or flee the house. You don't want to be like a neighbor of mine that has a 4 pack still in the shipping box from two years ago in the garage if the fire's in the kitchen.

  2. Note to past self: invest in wheat!
    *Headdesk* so…friggin…obvious!

    (Also invest in an edit button)

  3. The call to stockpile necessities is well received.

    But don't forget that authorities may try to confiscate your supplies, under the guise of "hoarders."

    Which means that one of your stockpiles should include weaponry and ammunition. It won't take too many casualties among the confiscation teams before they lose all enthusiasm.

  4. I woke up this morning to see Biden's administration had proposed sanctions on India because they wouldn't sanction Russia. Supposedly now India is looking to de-dollarize trade with Russia and China. Additionally, there were news items about various Arab countries moving assets into China.

    This could very well be the end of the USA reserve currency. The trust required is rapidly evaporating, and I'm certain China at the least will take advantage.

  5. Sir,
    We are noting the frenzy of 'hate Russia, really this time!' that is saturating the the media, both legacy and alternative, at present. This is making us wonder what else is going on while the world decides if a limited nuclear war is maybe a reasonable plan after all. The drumbeats are too uniform to be coincidental.
    The declarations of your Surgeon General today are of especial note.
    Our parliament is busy explaining that the crisis in Europe is proof that climate change is to blame and we need to transition to a fossil-fuel-free setup ASAP.
    Either these people have collectively lost their minds, or there is far more going on than is good for us to know.

    I fear we will be joining our fathers (in the Tolkien sense) all too soon, one way or the other.

    Mike in Canada

  6. As I write this Russia is firing on the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. How could this could be anything but a declaration of war on Europe?

  7. Antibubba who knows who is firing on that plant. Both sides use the same weapons, the Ukrainians are feeling the pinch since the offer of fighters and heavy weapons was withdrawn. Their Demands for a NO-FLY Zone denied.

    Two of the Russian Caldrons are closed on the Neo-Nazi Divisions and the third is nearly sealed for the final heavy artillery barrage after they ask for their surrender. Russia was serious about DE-nazifying Ukraine and Ukraine not being a NATO member.

    Why NOT have a false flag attack to PROVE they NEED a No-Fly Zone enforced by the good ole USA because nobody else can. What will happen when the first American Jet is eliminated by Russian Anti-Air?

    Is an ODD Fact that Putin Cured COVID so a NEW Emergency was needed? Pity this may end with a bright flash and bag for many Americans, Not the sewer scum we have for "Leaders".

  8. I don't expect any of them to become unavailable for extended periods, but short-term interruptions in supply are more and more likely.

    — I DO expect things to become unavailable. I think having a year supply of those things is a better plan. It doesn't take much for most things. How many bottles of shampoo do you use in a year? Rubbing alcohol? Tampons? Toothpaste? You want to buy replacements as you use them too, don't wait a year and then try to restock from nothing.

    I already see brand substitution at our local grocery as they try to keep at least some choice for each item. I see lots of holes in the shelves and changes to the physical layout of the stores to hide the reduced number of SKUs.

    Selco had some interesting comments about how the value of certain items changed over time during the conflict. At first candles and other lighting were important as people tried to keep the lights on. Later, they accepted the dark and other things took priority. IIRC, antibiotics and first aid creams were very valuable later.

    And almost every account I've ever read about a prolonged conflict ends up with the people eating grass. You need more FOOD.


  9. I have one hundred gallone of oil being delivered Monday. $458. That's a hell of a lot more than it was a few months ago.

  10. Re: Dry powder fire extinguishers. Just turn them upside down and shake them every 6 months.

    Don in Oregon

  11. The shorts are not in our market or likely to be in our market.

    The eruptive wave of have nots is going to meet an iron boundary that they don't even know exists.

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