Strategic Forecasting (StratFor), the private intelligence company headquartered in Texas, frequently produces very thought-provoking forecasts and summaries that I find invaluable.
Their latest analysis of the situation in Iran, headlined ‘Misreading The Iranian Situation‘, is a masterpiece. They believe that an Israeli military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities is not unlikely. Stratfor concludes:
We are reminded of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis only in this sense: We get the sense that everyone is misreading everyone else. In the run-up to the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Americans didn’t believe the Soviets would take the risks they did and the Soviets didn’t believe the Americans would react as they did. In this case, the Iranians believe the United States will play its old game and control the Israelis. Washington doesn’t really understand that Netanyahu may see this as the decisive moment. And the Russians believe Netanyahu will be controlled by an Obama afraid of an even broader conflict than he already has on his hands.
The current situation is not as dangerous as the Cuban Missile Crisis was, but it has this in common: Everyone thinks we are on a known roadmap, when in reality, one of the players — Israel — has the ability and interest to redraw the roadmap. Netanyahu has been signaling in many ways that he intends to do just this. Everyone seems to believe he won’t. We aren’t so sure.
I agree with StratFor, and believe there’s a very real chance that Israel may strike at Iran unilaterally rather than permit the latter country to develop nuclear weapons. What that would do to an already shaky world economy, with wholesale war in the Straits of Hormuz blocking oil exports from the entire Persian Gulf region, just doesn’t bear thinking about.
The whole Stratfor analysis is well worth reading. Highly recommended.
Peter
I think that Israel will strike Iran and that the Saudis will back their play. My sense is that the Israelis will get tacit approval for the move with the sure knowledge that Hezbollah and Hamas will go insane (prodded by their masters).
Is it a done deal? No. But the implications of a closure of the Straits of Hormuz and what that would do to the price of oil at the pumps – and the damage it would do to the economy is no small thing.
PS – I subscribe to Stratfor too
Remember that ship loaded with timber that got a little lost? RobertaX had a piece recently to the effect that it was carrying advanced air defense systems from Russia to Iran, and thus piqued Mossad's curiousity.
Jim
I understand that Israel already has the tacit approval from the Saudis to overfly their country. Presumably the Israelis would overfly the relatively unpopulated areas to avoid drawing attention.
As to the economic impact, with the recession at a bottom (Bernanke tells us) the impact would be minimalized, and the U.S. Navy would have an excuse to "brush back" any Iranian attempt to enforce a blockade.
The big question I see at this unfortunate point, would be which side the U.S. State department came down on.
Stratfor is my news source period. My businessis international and their wrok is top notch. Well worth the subscription price.
MC