Strategy Page has an interesting analysis of what China’s position appears to be on the war in Ukraine. It’s part of a larger, longer article discussing the war in general and President Putin’s position in particular.
Officially, China supports Russian efforts to deal with “Ukrainian aggression.” Unofficially, China is critical of the Russian war on Ukraine, if only because of the negative impact on Chinese trade and diplomacy. China was a major customer for Ukrainian military tech and wheat. That trade is disrupted and will take a while to recover, no matter who wins.
There were other problems. China was not happy with the poor performance of Russian troops in Ukraine. China was kept informed about the preparations for the invasion and asked Russia to wait until the Winter Olympics in China were over on February 23rd before invading. The invasion began before dawn on the 24th and was, according to Russia, supposed to be over in fifteen days. After about a week, China concluded that the Russian plan and the Russian military had failed. Russian troops quickly ran into trouble because of the unexpected stiff resistance by Ukrainian troops and armed civilians. China initially remained silent about the invasion and as the Ukrainian resistance increased, along with unprecedented sanctions imposed by Russia’s Western trading partners, China refused to openly support the Russian operation. China was also dismayed at the degree of European military support for the Ukrainians, despite Russian threats of nuclear retaliation. That did not dissuade the Europeans or Americans, just as it had not worked on China during their 1969 border war between Russia and China. In 1969 China had recently tested its first nuclear weapon but did not have a nuclear retaliation capability. Russia approached the Americans about joining in a nuclear attack on China. The Americans refused and criticized the Russian threats to use nukes. When China found out about that, there was a warming in the long-frosty relations with the Americans which soon (1972) led to the U.S. recognizing the Chinese communist government.
The Chinese consider themselves more astute students of history than Russians and now believe that the invasion was poorly planned and carried out. China is more willing to acknowledge problems with readiness and training in their own military, lessons that Russia appears to have forgotten. Any perceived Chinese support of this Russian disaster causes problems for China, as well as inspiring the Chinese military to pay more attention to avoiding the Russian approach.
China is not assisting Russia economically, unless it benefits China. To do otherwise would be expensive, reward Russian bad judgment and imply Chinese approval of the Ukrainian operation. With no Chinese economic lifeline available, Russia is under more pressure to end the Ukraine operation as soon as possible. The Russian plan was to rush in and occupy key areas, like the capital Kyiv and all Ukrainian ports, and then declare the war ended and call for negotiations. That didn’t work but opposition inside Russia did appear. Many prominent Russians have risked arrest by openly criticizing the invasion. China has less openly agreed with these critics by refusing to rescue Putin and the Russian economy. China has also been investing more money in its “lost territories” in Pacific Coast Russia. More Chinese are coming into these territories to live and do business while, since the 1990s, more Russians left. China expected to eventually take control of the lost territories economically and with a lot of Chinese residents. The Ukraine-related sanctions have sped up this process.
The Russian invasion is something China warned against because it was reckless, something China avoids at all costs. Now that the Russian invasion has failed and produced unprecedented economic sanctions, China is making the most of that and forcing Russia to be even more dependent on China. For example, Russia was able to use the Chinese credit card network and a new China controlled international banking system. This system is still small and new members tend to be outlaw states, but it’s a start. Ukraine, which has done a lot of business with China over the last decade, is aware that China could order Russia to halt their invasion and deal with the aftermath via negotiations. It suits China to allow Russia to weaken itself further and become more dependent on China. This is their long-range strategy to defeat Russia and retrieve the Pacific coast territory lost to the Russian monarchy centuries ago. For the moment China goes along with the Russian version of the war, in which Russia is simply defending itself from NATO aggression. China intends to be the only winner in this war and so far, that is happening.
There’s more at the link.
I’ve been wondering how China sees the Ukraine war, and what advantage(s) it can garner from it. I think the speedy, united action of the West against Russia has disconcerted Xi’s government. I think they thought they could mount a military takeover of Taiwan with little or no reaction from the West; but the Ukraine war has shown them that such negative reaction is very likely, and may cost them dear in economic (if not military) terms. China may now adopt a “waiting game” until it can absorb Taiwan peacefully.
The other, and perhaps more important, consideration for China is its long-standing desire to recover the Pacific coastal territory seized from it by Russia under the Tsars, centuries ago. There’s also the immense storehouse of raw materials, including vast quantities of oil, in Siberia and the east of Russia. China already dominates those provinces economically; without Chinese investment and manpower, they’d have shriveled up and died, in practical terms. In many ways, they’re as good as Chinese colonies already. The dismal performance of the Russian armed forces may have persuaded China that if it really wanted or needed those provinces, it could probably seize them by a coup de main without worrying too much about a conventional military response. The big question, of course, is whether Russia would resort to nuclear weapons, despite the threat of Chinese nuclear retaliation. That’s a horse of an entirely different color.
Furthermore, if I were in North Korea, I’d be considering my options very carefully right now. Suddenly China has bigger things to worry about than encouraging a North Korean gadfly to irritate the United States. Their support for that paranoid, insular, isolated regime now has, I’m sure, a lot lower priority than it once did. China is entirely capable of deciding, in a fit of irritation, that it’s had enough of that minor distraction, and forcing regime change on North Korea whether that country likes it or not.
Interesting times . . .
Peter
Hmm, many interesting points.
In particular, China is acutely aware of how dependent it is on the US and Europe for now. I think the point about Taiwan is a BIG one; this confirms that they would have to hit fast and hard to take it quickly, and even then they may have trouble from the West over it. For now, taking Taiwan would kill their golden goose in many ways…
The challenge for China will be to balance their declining workforce and internal strife against external responses to aggressive moves.
Anyone who knows how effective MANPADs and Javelins are is not surprised at how Russia got bogged down in a campaign where they were trying to limit enemy casualties and damage to enemy infrastructure. The flip side of that is that Russia rules the airspace above 10,000 feet and quickly eliminated all the fixed military installations with supersonic and hypersonic cruise missiles. But now it is down to ferreting out the enemy embedded in urban areas. That is expensive in men, time and equipment. Look for militaries to develop new non-lethal area denial weapons, or for them to develop automated siege systems to allow encirclement without huge resource commitment. China will need that when they assault Taiwan. Russia needs it now and doesn't have it.
One factor that may be causing the Chinese to back off on the idea of assaulting Taiwan was the disclosure that the chip fabs have been wired for demo, and boots on the beaches will be the signal to blow them.
As bad as the mainland Chinese are at construction, those fabs will be a long time getting reconstituted. That's not counting replacing the chip making equipment. Talking years. By then, the rest of the world will have built their own fabs, so control of that world resource will not be in their hands. Microchip fabs are very peculiar buildings, and very expensive as a result. They must be built from scratch, no repurposing of a normal building.
No, but I wonder how much they have stockpiled. Chips are small and light. It wouldn't take mutch to store a significant supply.
In the event the fabs are destroyed everyone will he in the same boat. Even obsolete chips can be used for the industrial controllers, etc that make the world run.
Hey Peter;
China views this century as "Their" century, they want to punish the West and the world for the slights against them from the last century, they view themselves as the center of the world and that the rest of the world is there to serve them.
You are correct,, but it is more than that.
They view themselves a civilized and the time from the mid-19th century through the latter part of the 20th as a "century of humilation" ans they were oppressed and taken advantage of by barbarians.
Taking, what they view as their rightful place is enhanced by righting those historical wrongs.
I imagine the abundant, cheap Chinese fentanol is part of this
If you think Russia's losses have been bad, watch the bloodbath in the Formosa Strait when the ChiComs try to force a crossing.
You cited Austen Bay. Here's some perspective from David Goldman:
https://pjmedia.com/spengler/2022/04/03/putin-wont-go-russia-wont-collapse-so-what-will-biden-do-about-ukraine-n1586600
https://asiatimes.com/2022/03/n-war-risk-real-bidens-living-a-dangerous-fantasy/
BTW, I think Peter Zeihan's totally wrong about China. David Goldman has generally called it right on China more than Peter Zeihan.
Everyone assumes Taiwan will be a military invasion. I suspect it will be more a intermarriage and gradual reintegration, with an eventual diplomatic recognition of the fact afterward.
Blue I think your on target. There is a lot of intermarriage between mainland China and Taiwan, mostly the rich families.
Once the umbrella of US "Defense" is shown to be a rag bag of bits and bobs I suspect a "Business Deal" will occur giving Taiwan "Special Status".
Actually with the World wide Food Shortage AND China's efforts to exchange US Treasury Bills for FOOD and Energy lately I wonder if offering Taiwan both protection AND Energy AND Food might be the way forward to this Business Deal. Gets rid of rapidly depreciating US Dollars for REAL Goods AND makes China better able to weather the current shortage of food, oil, natural gas and fertilizer.
China and Russia both have several years worth of food and energy stored away for emergencies. The US has NO Food Reserves as we sold off the Strategic Grain Reserves almost a decade ago and the Sock Puppet is BUSY Pumping our 9 DAYS worth of emergency Oil AKA Strategic Oil Reserves out to LOOK GOOD to angry voters as we speak.
I firmly believe that China who OWNS our Sock Puppet is running a proxy war between the US and Russia in Ukraine. Putin is well aware of China's scorpion nature but is threading the fine line between getting in a crippling war that China can take over some of Russia's resources and yet cripples the USA.
If Putin does that or at least survives strong enough to keep China at bay CHINA still looks like a mostly good guy and can wait for the next time.
Getting nuked by Russia isn't in China's best interests. A betrayed Russia might just DO the Sampson Defense and destroy everything if their country is going to be destroyed.
I am FAR more concerned how this little "Controllable war" (An oxymoron) will affect me and mine.
I suspect this is act one of the Famine Wars and we the people are about to find out just how little FOOD is in Mother Hubbard's Cupboards and worse just how little OUR GOV.com cares about us.
GOT FOOD? Lots of it and ability to make more?
It was a semi-open secret that China planned an invasion of Taiwan later this year (probably November after the typhoon season was over)
I think plan has been put on ice both because of the western reaction and the realization that invading an island makes the logistics of invading a country that you have lots of land borders with look easy.
I don't say that the PRC cannot invade Taiwan successfully, but I think that given even a little resistance it would be a victory that came at extreme cost in terms of PLAN ships and crews.
I note that plans for a successful invasion have to assume that Japan doesn't get involved as well as sssuming that the US would also stand off. I think that Ukraine has made it clear that Japan very likely would get involved and the JMSDF and JASDF are almost certain to destry lots of PLAN even if the US doesn't get involved. If the US does then it can trivially fly sorties from Okinawa to inderdict the Taiwan strait.
I will note from my visits to Taiwan that it seems quite clear that many Taiwanese have absolutely zero desire to join the PRC and would fight an invasion. As with Ukraine such a defense would require massive numbers of occupying forces and so on.
China has been preparing.
There was story about 6 months to year ago about them brining in ferries for upgrades. Could a ferry be modified to make that trip and shuttle men and material?
Odd how many Open Secrets and such are around. Seems EVERYBODY knows what folks are secretly planning to do. LOL
China plays a LONG GAME.
Americans have very short time views. We have already FORGOT how badly the COVID restrictions HARMED them AND how Canada used Bank Seizures to strip people of their assets. We are about to vote AGAIN for the same Uniparty that has been stripping us of our freedoms and wealth in Nov.
China has full understanding about corruption and buying and maintaining the usefulness of corruptible people (Epstein tapes anybody?). They OWN the Sock Puppet and the Deep State (aka the kingmakers behind the US "Throne").
Invading Taiwan would destroy the Golden Goose of Chip Manufacturing.
It's a simple fact that Rich Chinese families intermarry between Taiwan and Mainland China.
The many Americans that have absolutely NO Interest in going to fight in Ukraine often sport Ukraine Flags alongside their Black Lives Matter and such. People easily manipulated or ignored by their government.
The RICH in America are MAKING BANK on the Ukrainian War situation.
Taiwan will be a peaceful "Business Deal" between rich families.
I am FAR more concerned how all this nonsense is going to affect me and mine. Got FOOD, Lots of Food? I can survive without computer chips (But they DO make life nicer) but safe water and FOOD is more important.
Michael said:
Once the umbrella of US "Defense" is shown to be a rag bag of bits and bobs I suspect a "Business Deal" will occur giving Taiwan "Special Status".
I'm pretty sure Taiwan has been paying close attention to Hong Kong's "special status". Whatever shiny deal the PRC may initially offer, they will eventually rescind it–because overbearing control is more vital to Communist regimes than any other factor. Considering how much more important Taiwan is to US interests, I suspect the PRC is reconsidering their conquest.
Antibubba have you looked at what huge percentage of Taiwan's Energy and Food is imported?
Already a couple of their food exporters S Korea, and Philippines have declared Force Majure and cannot export. More Asian nations are following suit as feeding their own is more important than exporting.
Lack of food and the lights going out are powerful persuasion in my experience.
AND Oddly Enough China will be RIGHT THERE with plenty of already bought American Food and Energy.
The Chinese have been preparing for the Famine Wars for several years (before COVID) and know how effective controlling food and energy is.
But time will tell. Even if the Democrats 25th Amendment the Sockpuppet do they have anybody else on deck to make the Taiwanese secure that CHINA doesn't already OWN the President of the USA?
Obama? Hillary? Pelosi? Shudder.
Maybe the Chinese need America to have another disaster to reduce their standing again after Afghanistan. That's part of the Famine War scenario to reduce BOTH Russia and America to chaos.
Praying I am wrong but facts are scary.
Not just American food. China has a reputation for buying up foodstuffs from Australia and NZ as well.
This is because China's farmland is horribly polluted and damaged. Nobody eats domestic if they can help it.
Only a fool would get his news from the media. You have to look somewhat deeper and it helps quite a bit to understand both the means and the people waging war. Once again Americans treat this as if it was the US taking losses in a pushover contest but once again they are ignorant and ill served by the media.
Putin didn't want Ukraine. He wanted what he got and took and has now made clear to the West that the endless pushing of NATO is more than irritating.
Putin is showing the smart people just exactly how Russia can prevail if it doesn't get what it wants at the peace talks. The before and after pictures of Mariupol show what artillery and an indifference to human life and suffering means if applied to Ukraine. Everyone who knows Russia knows that it is utterly indifferent to human life and suffering. If the Ukrainians don't knuckle under soon there is no reason Putin won't pull up another bigger Ukrainian target city and level it with artillery.
The world now knows that the Javelin is a true tank killer. Good. It's gonna suck when we find out that Russian anti-ship missiles put Javelins in the shade. I haven't looked at open sources at all but I wonder if any USN ships are still in the Black Sea "demonstrating support for Ukraine and taking part in FON Operations. I kind of doubt it. Mistakes happen in war.