Am I a prophet, or what?

Last night I posted:

Iran’s seeing its influence in the region vaporize before its eyes, and is facing the very real threat of permanent economic isolation.  It’s more than capable of lashing out in blind fury.

All this is happening while Israel is preparing (may, by now, be ready) to take out Iran’s nuclear program at the drop of a hat (and drop it itself if no-one else will).

Duck and cover, folks.  I suspect things are going to get even more interesting in the Middle East before long.

Almost at the same time as I was writing those words:

A bomb exploded on a bus carrying Israeli youth in a Bulgarian resort Wednesday, killing at least six people and wounding 32, officials said. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called it “an Iranian terror attack” and promised a tough response.


Like I said . . . duck and cover.



  1. What Old Ben says and what actually is may be two different things. Iran is under threat; they are also capable of thinking about the consequences of their actions. This makes no sense from a tactical perspective for the Iranians to do.
    Ben, however, is a politician- a very good one who knows how to keep his career humming along regardless of the problems his country faces. He has incentive to lie.

  2. @August: I don't think Iran is fully rational – witness the emphasis on preparing for the coming of the '12th Imam', as voiced by Ahmedinejad and others among their leaders. See, for example, this article in the Telegraph from 2007:

    Even if parts of Iran's government are rational (after their own fashion), that doesn't mean the country isn't still extremely dangerous. After all, what they consider rational might be extremely bad news for us! See:

  3. Peter, you are correct. Iran IS willing to strike like this, and really doesn't believe Israel will strike back (they think the US will stop it)…

  4. This is an ongoing tit for tat over the deaths of several of Irans scientists over the last few years.

    The issue is that the bomber used a Michagan ID. With the growing Arab population in the area it will be intersting to see if part of this ends up traced back to the US.


  5. Remarkably, despite whatever Ahmedinejad may or may not have said, Iran has not engaged in the kind of foreign policy the United States has. He has not invaded various neighboring nations, has not surrounded the U.S. with military. The threat from Iran is on par with the threat from a cornered animal. Meanwhile, over Syria, Hilary is making bellicose noises to Russia and China. We are in trouble because these people don't know what they are doing and the replacement team is just as bad. A little cooperative strategy and they (I suspect China might be the last hold out because they'd like to pretend they'll get paid back all the money they lent to us) will be able to confound our logistics. They'll cut off the supply lines. Or they might be just as stupid- considering how happy Obama is with droning people, who can be comfortable with him having the power to nuke?

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