Some readers wonder why I place so much faith in Michael Yon‘s analysis of current events. The reason is simple. As most of you know, I worked for years in the Third World, and learned the hard way how things really are there – the deprivation and poverty, the corruption, the violence, the hopelessness. It’s not always like that, but people in that environment are living very close to the edge. One bad harvest, one sudden military coup by a strongman who gets impatient at not getting all the kickbacks and baksheesh he thinks he deserves, one sudden natural disaster, and hell’s come to breakfast. I’ve seen it at first hand all too often – and so has Michael Yon. He hasn’t only reported (very accurately) on America’s wars over the past few decades; he’s been around the world, he’s experienced the reality of life in many countries, and he understands how to interpret the signs of the times in the light of hard, bitterly-earned experience. So do I. I’m here to tell you, he’s far closer to the truth, and far more accurate in his analysis, than most paid pundits in the mainstream media.
He’s warning again of how close to the edge we are as a nation. First, violence.
Watching the situation daily — am ‘statistically’ weighting this period in August as higher chance for serious violent outbreaks in USA. Many overriding wildcards such as Taiwan. And always the random Black Swan. But if we continue on this glide path, I would heavily weight mid-August. And be very surprised if we do not have extreme levels of violence before end November.
. . .
By Spring and summer 2023 — game on.
Increasing chance of actual famine in parts of United States by 2023-24.
How will places like Puerto Rico, Hawaii, Guam, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, and more…feed themselves? Those who can will try to move where the food is. And then what?
. . .
Been warning about danger of famine for 29 months in writing and interviews. Conditions are ripening.
It’s all coming to pass. Not rocket science. Just studying, watching, traveling around, looking, listening.
Chance of actual famine in United States by 2024 > 50%.
There’s more at the link.
I think he’s probably very accurate with that forecast, because it dovetails with what the powers that be will think they have to do to intimidate the electorate in advance of the November 2022 elections. Remember the Antifa and BLM riots in 2020? I suspect we’re about to see them roll in again, and even worse, bolstered by sheer naked criminality in big cities like Chicago, Los Angeles and New York. In all of the latter cities, crime is out of control and the police are demoralized, with hundreds – even thousands – of them retiring or resigning rather than face the reality of the streets they patrol. I can’t blame them. Their leftist local governments are pandering to the mob rather than enforcing law and order. Why should cops put their lives on the line when they get no official support? In their shoes, I wouldn’t either. Nevertheless, that means the mobs will be encouraged to get even wilder, because they know they can and will get away with their criminal behavior. (Beware – if you defend yourself against them, in today’s politically correct climate, you’ll most likely be blamed rather than them. See my two earlier articles for a discussion about that.
Never forget, too, that our current crisis is being instigated, manipulated and directed by those behind the current (fraudulent) Biden administration. As Yon points out:
The lights are being turned off in front of our eyes. Energy methodically shut down, food, death-vaxxes, and more. A genocide is unfolding. For those who study the past and today, this is flatly obvious.
Fewer people will need less energy. And fuel-control means the people cannot move far, or organize.
Believe it. He’s right. I’ve seen it before, and what I’m seeing now in this country scares the hell out of me. Most Americans can’t see it, and aren’t prepared for it. I wrote about it last month, in an article titled “A totalitarian onslaught against freedom on a worldwide scale“. I believed that then, and I still believe it now. You’re free to disagree . . . but nobody has yet given me any convincing argument to counter the reasoning I advanced there. I wish someone would. It might make me feel better.
Yon’s reference to “fuel control” is a very real threat. Make fuel too expensive for most people to afford, restrict its supply through “refinery shutdowns” or “supply chain bottlenecks”, and suddenly a lot less Americans will be on the roads. If they have to stay in one place, they’re easier to control. The First Amendment may recognize “the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances” – but if they can’t get enough fuel to assemble, the right is effectively nullified, isn’t it? The possibility of resistance – peaceful or otherwise – is greatly reduced. (The authorities will still have more than enough fuel, of course.) As an incidental benefit, people who can’t fuel their vehicles will be less able to escape the violence that’s about to be let loose in their cities. Even if they can escape themselves at short notice, they’ll probably have to leave most of their belongings behind to be looted.
If you think this is all a wild flight of fantasy, that “it can never happen here!” – well, good luck to you. All I can say is, I’m getting ready for everything Michael Yon forecasts, because I can see it coming too. We’ll find out soon enough who was right.
Peter
Not anywhere near the M Yon fan that Peter is, but he gets some things right here. I think that the big blowup by Thanksgiving prediction is pretty solid, the realization that things only get worse after is solid. My studies on the subject convince me that the odds on complete breakdown and famine are much higher than what he suggests here.
The advantages of experiencing such disasters in the third world include that it isn't a surprise to the people when it happens. They will have gone through such things before and as poor as their circumstances are they will have learned some coping mechanisms. Just knowing what to expect is a great help.
Ninety-Five percent of the Western World will be utter astounded and at a complete loss when this happens here. The structures of society are much more complicated and brittle and when they start to break there will be no coping mechanism, no safety net.
Neither the third world or our Great Depression provide a model of what the collapse of our society will be like. There aren't relatives with small farms where some amount of food can be produced, for that matter there isn't the knowledge of how to procure or preserve that food.
Even at this point I can't help but see people like Peter or Mr Yon to be optimists.
I take Yon’s predictions with a grain of salt. He always tend to make predictions in the extremes. When Covid hit he was predicting a massive plague, full hospitals and a huge death toll well beyond what we saw. It’s a trend that I’ve noticed through every situation he covers.
He’s not wrong in his observations but I think he takes everything to its most extreme conclusion.
" If they have to stay in one place, they're easier to control." A lot of people don't see this applying to electric cars either. For one, electric cars have limited range. Even "fast charging" stations take time. Imagine an exodus of people trying to recharge say, between Bakersfield and Vegas! Think of the FUN! Wanna exert more control? Just turn power off at these "midway" points. That'll stop all those people in their tracks. …And let's not forget how trackable and controllable those "green" cars are! If Tesla can do OTA software updates on your car, what's to keep Telsa from having your car go autonomous and pull you over… or even drive you to an interment camp? …NO THANKS…
"And be very surprised if we do not have extreme levels of violence before end November."
I'm very surprised we don't have "extreme levels of violence" now; if we do make it to November before everything goes all sporty begin I'll be astonished.
But let's go with his November estimate – Mr. Yon, is that "extreme level of violence" in November going to be two-way, or just more of Americans continuing to be victims of the Left's usual storm troopers?
We're rapidly approaching the point where Henry Bowman's Dictum becomes the rule.
Sigh… I can't disagree, as much as I'd like to.
SQT in fairness when COVID was first out NOBODY knew just how bad it was. Even Aesop was blaring doom and collapsed hospital systems for quite some time.
I'd rather the Watchman like Michael Yon post the alarm and it be less than disastrous than be silent as doom creeps into the city. I being medical have worked through H1N1, Swine Flu, Ebola and many nasty flu seasons and I went into my standard protective stance with COVID.
If I acquired COVID sometime in the past two years, I don't know but treated myself as I do for any cold-flu and my family was fine. Something about supporting that God issued immune system.
I did not get the shot and lost several months worth of work over that until they figured out how to get around that problem.
I am getting more and more convinced that the COVID was a Trojan horse to get the EMERGENCY USE ONLY (and TWO YEARS NOW STILL Emergency use, go figure) "Vaccine" into as many panicked and frankly forced peoples as possible. Too many countries version of the US VAIRES (spelling?) has shown NONE of the standard profile of increased vaccination and Lowered Disease profile. The side effects are showing up and outside of the US papers are seriously discussing if the "Vaxx" is the problem. England has SADS a new term to describe how vaxxed under 40 adults are Sudden Death Syndrome. Israel same reports. Not good.
So in short, I'd rather be rushed into buying something like food I'll eat anyway if there was no disaster than look into my families eyes as their is major shortages and hyperinflation preventing my family to eat decently.
The Producers Index is up 50% and rising, this is a leading indicator to the CPI. Big Inflation is coming. Buy any durable goods you can now so that what you have left you can spend on food. Buy as much food as you can now and look at a garden – its not too late. Buy old cookbooks, flour and the basics.
Better to be too paranoid than not enough. I'm seeing a lot of people complaining about the prices but not thinking even 3 months ahead.
Many of us have been aware of these situations as they've happened around the world. As to timeframe though I haven't a real clue BUT IF the country doesn't get back the the real America we see it happening here with the Demonrats running and destroying the country.
it's not the democrats, it's a far more dangerous enemy that's hidden in the shadows and believes it has to exterminate certain races of people concerning their eschatological beliefs.
one goal is to put off november elections
Gradually…then suddenly.
@Michael I agree that Yon has the right idea on preparedness. We have a six month food supply and I’m hoping we’re being alarmist ourselves. But nothing makes sense right now and the only thing I know how to do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Seen Biden's types smashing other nations in my 30 years overseas. Usually through corruption and graft. Nigeria has no functioning refineries because its government demanded too much graft and it was cheaper to run the refineries' into the ground. Biden is smashing the economy because he believes the people will believe only the government can fix the problems it created.
Let me get this straight, politicians who have wallowed in the swamp for 40 years and made things worse are the solution to our problems? My response is rope, tree, torch.
As for Antifa, BLM, lesbians, groomers, the race hustlers, and associated academic hanger ons, their time is coming. They have played their cards and II am willing to play by their rules. 30 years overseas taught me what happens when these people win. I saw Cambodia, Vietnam, Burma, Nigeria, Salvador, South Africa, Iraq, Iran.
Aesop just posted an excellent link to a retired MD's views on the results of the "Vaxx".
It's well worth reading. HT as they say to Aesop here.
Aesop's killer line is for those that took the jab "GOK as in God only knows just how screwed you are".
Aesop also nicely pointed out how to secure your own copy before Orville's 1984 flaming memory hole eats this from the internet.
"Those who can will try to move where the food is. And then what?"
And then the government begins "redistributing" food and other supplies from whypeeboo to minorities in the name of reparations and social justice.
This is what I see. With the disintegration of our Southern Border and the coming shortages on top of the shortages which are already here, DHS Black and Tans, plus Blue Hive NG units will be going door-to-door looking to "redistribute" what you have to the great unwashed. Plan accordingly. Bleib ubrig.
SQT and Manic a combined reply as answer is pretty much the same.
If you have 6 months chow laid in and don't BRAG about it, you can supplement meager food supplies for maybe a year. THEN WHAT? Most garden crops are about 100 days from planting, weeding, watering, protecting from 2 and 4 legged critters to EATING.
Also, that little thing like Winter? My Grandmother used to feed us grandkids two and three year old stuff from her pantry "To SAVE the fresh stuff incase of garden failure".
Personally, as nearly everything in Walmart's dry good section can be safely stored for two to four years in a cool dark dry place, protected from rodents and socialists I WONDER why folks don't have two years worth set aside.
I mean do you REALLY think foods going to get CHEAPER next year? Are you going to stop eating next year?
Gov.com cannot steal what it knows nothing about. Local desperate folks is a different issue. Learning how to keep that Yapper closed is HARD and learning Disinformation like wearing less than well fitting clothing to LOOK like your suffering along with the pack is hard.
Real hard is getting your kids to understand that you cannot just feed their BEST Friend a meal because they are starving. Folks Holodomor IS COMING. LOOK it up. Families that survived it hid barrels of cabbages and beans in the woods to sneak feed while villages were doing cannibalism.
That was BECAUSE if they tried to help the Soviet Troops would simply murder them and take that food also. Not because they didn't want to help but any help was ruthlessly smashed. Holodomor = Murder by starvation.
Stalin stole food by military force to feed HIS SUPPORTERS in the Cities.
Probably will happen again as Socialists love repeating history.
Trusted friends are a valued asset in times of troubles. Get BUSY, Tempus fugit.
Took John Prine's advice six years ago and never looked back.
"Blow up your TV
Throw away your paper
Go to the country
Build you a home
Plant a little garden
Eat a lot of peaches
Try an' find Jesus on your own"
Michael: Even Aesop was blaring doom and collapsed hospital systems for quite some time.
I am still a Gilligan 🙂
KevinM I'd take it as a mark of Honor to be a Gilligan in Aesop's eyes. At least he posted your comment so he could insult you.
What's that Dale Carnegie book again? Something about making friends and influencing people?
Or as Cicero said The man who backbites an absent friend, nay, who does not stand up for him when another blames him, the man who angles for bursts of laughter and for the repute of a wit, who can invent what he never saw, who cannot keep a secret — that man is black at heart: mark and avoid him.
Marcus Tullius Cicero
Someday we all get punched in the face, then is when we find out our strength and that of our friends.
I'm glad I have friends I can trust.
I've never "blared doom", on any subject.
I did give you if/thens, labelled them as such, and gave you best case/middle case/worst case in almost every instance.
The posts are still right where I left 'em, unchanged.
What I can't help is people who didn't read the posts the first time, plunked down their uninformed opinions from ignorance, and never bothered to look at what I wrote, let alone do the finger-math to figure things out.
I told you outright COVID would in all likelihood have a mortality or about 3%, based on historical trends.
NJ peaked at 2.9%, and NFY peaked at 2.8%.
The national average was around 1.6%.
I also told you, accurately, what overwhelming the healthcare system would do.
We're still down 50% on ICU nurses, and 20% of ER staff, nearly 18 months after the worst of it. A non-zero number of whom – doctors, nurses, and ancillary staff – burned out and said "Screw this!", and who won't be coming back, ever.
And that goes back to before Vaxxholes and full Covidiocy from TPTB.
And I also told you the disease was the absolute least of your problems, and that second-, third-, and fourth-order consequences would be far, far more troublesome.
So, as of now now the Constitution is bleeding from a serial gang-bang anal rape-a-thon, you have a not-a-Vaxx that's killed something like 150K people and counting, with 2/3rds of the country or more polluted by it and still at risk for random future casualty status, and "healthy" youngsters dropping like flies by the day (Sudden Death Syndrome, call your office); you have a fraudulent banana republic government; your supply chain is FUBAR; your money is becoming more worthless every day s inflation heads to Weimar/Zimbabwe/Venezuela levels by the week; food shortages are in the offing, with the spectre of nuclear war rumbling on the horizon, while the government indoctrinations children with pedophilia, and seeks to disarm you, AGAIN, while identifying you and your as the terrorists.
Tell me again where I overstated the magnitude of the problem.
I'll just wait over here while you work that one out.
Aesop my choice of words wasn't the best but you were my best source for COVID issues.
NH somehow did far better than most states, only FL did better in not locking down and destroying business and ODDLY Enough Not suffering from near the same % of COVID deaths as your examples. But then again, we got into our Govenor's face about the bogus Motorcyclist style head crushing death WITH COVID as not FROM COVID. That edited quite a few from the COVID Death toll, AND our Governor didn't allow rest homes to be forced into taking known COVID cases until cleared.
The flatten the curve 2 years plus now, seems a major power trip even today with various versions of OMG here it comes again from the Covid Disinformation Center (CDC).
I agree that the Not a Vaxx is the real plague and as you put it so well God Only Knows (GOK) just how screwed the vaxxed are. Time will tell. I'm praying for those in my family and friends that took it and discouraging them about "Boosters".
I also agree that the ongoing rape of our Republic from so many directions is the REAL Problem.
You know I think the whole Proxy War in Ukraine is idiocy at it's worst. Not like we have any real reason to play there aside from the Bug Guy's 10% (And all the other leeches in our Leaderships family "connections") OH, AND a Major Distraction from the Rape of our Republic from those VERY SAME "Leadership".
As Michael Yon says PanFamWar is here. I say Famine Wars are here.
Fret about feelings as you see fit. That's what Beer is for. I'd worry more about safe water, 2+ years of stored foods and trusted friends as Chaos erupts all around.
D'accord.
Ukraine is turning into Russia in Afghanistan v2.0, just closer to home, and without the annoying language barrier.
The Putin-love for a thug baffles me, but that's what you get with knee-jerk contrarian responses.
It was concocted as a diversionary lab experiment, but took on a life of its own when the Ukes didn't roll over and get wiped out, as expected. Wag The Dog became Chased The Car, Caught It, Now What Do We Do?
If it wasn't for the ongoing chance of Canned Sunshine release by Vladpoleon, I'd pay it little mind at all, other than as a sideshow. Like the Spanish Civil War, it's proving to be mainly a test-bed for the toys to be used in the next Grand Dust Up. It took Spain 50 years to recover from that last experiment.
As for what really matters, the choir has heard that sermon for years. The smarter ones heeded it when they could.
But I think we're all going to get a lesson or three, no matter what.
Aesop is on target concerning ICU and ED nurse numbers. We have 'Bonus shifts' offering big pay all the time, because too many of our long-term (experienced) nurses quit. As of end of June we will be on mandatory overtime. They interview many nurses for our empty slots, and somehow few of them end up hiring on. Our skill set is getting thinner by the day as the older nurses quit. In normal times we would be thinking of working a few more years. Now, it's out ASAP. But with inflation up and 403B down, maybe some of these nurses will be back, but they won't be happy.