The BBC reports that there’s a “Jaw-dropping global crash in children being born“.
The world is ill-prepared for the global crash in children being born which is set to have a “jaw-dropping” impact on societies, say researchers.
Falling fertility rates mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century.
And 23 nations – including Spain and Japan – are expected to see their populations halve by 2100.
Countries will also age dramatically, with as many people turning 80 as there are being born.
. . .
As a result, the researchers expect the number of people on the planet to peak at 9.7 billion around 2064, before falling down to 8.8 billion by the end of the century.
“That’s a pretty big thing; most of the world is transitioning into natural population decline,” researcher Prof Christopher Murray told the BBC.
“I think it’s incredibly hard to think this through and recognise how big a thing this is; it’s extraordinary, we’ll have to reorganise societies.”
. . .
Who pays tax in a massively aged world? Who pays for healthcare for the elderly? Who looks after the elderly? Will people still be able to retire from work?
“We need a soft landing,” argues Prof Murray.
Countries, including the UK, have used migration to boost their population and compensate for falling fertility rates.
However, this stops being the answer once nearly every country’s population is shrinking.
“We will go from the period where it’s a choice to open borders, or not, to frank competition for migrants, as there won’t be enough,” argues Prof Murray.
There’s more at the link, including a forecast that Africa will swell to 3 billion people by 2100, with “many more people of African descent in many more countries as we go through this”.
However, the study makes no mention of three stark realities. These are visible on the streets of many European cities right now, and in US society as well.
- Immigrants – particularly illegal aliens – are more likely than citizens to require social benefits and entitlement programs, rather than work for a living.
- Immigrants from rigidly stratified backgrounds – racial, ethnic, religious, or any other sort – are less likely to assimilate into the society and culture of their new national homes.
- In the absence of sufficient (and sufficiently willing) labor, business and commerce are developing robots and other automated solutions to meet their needs. This applies even to health care and care for the aged. Automated solutions don’t get tired or sick or hungry, don’t need time off, don’t go on strike, and – after their initial capital cost is covered – are usually a lot cheaper to operate than paying wages and salaries.
For all those reasons, I think immigration will not be the preferred solution to a shortage of “own” babies. Instead, I think technologically advanced societies (e.g. Japan) will develop automated solutions to their worker shortage – and they’ll export them to other technologically advanced societies, as a cheaper and better way to cope with the challenges that all such societies are now facing.
Immigrants from Third World nations aren’t likely to as welcome in most other countries as they have been in the past, because they’re already turning out to be more of a burden on those societies than they’re contributing to them. There are exceptions, of course, and very honorable ones: but they can’t offset the crushing weight of sheer numbers of “Gimme! Gimme!” immigrants, who are moving for their benefit rather than that of their new host nations. So desperate are they for improved living conditions that they’re willing to endure natural and man-made hazards to reach a more accommodating destination. War, famine, wind and weather, even the threat of rape and being enslaved – none of them deter the desperate. They just keep coming, despite efforts to stop them. (Read about the numbers fleeing Africa through Libya and/or Somalia/Eritrea, and the accounts they give of the dangers of the journey. They’re eye-opening.)
This is going to lead to ongoing (and probably worsening) conflict over the next years and decades, because voters will demand that their taxes are used for their benefit rather than that of outsiders streaming (usually illegally) across their borders.