The REAL rate of inflation is getting seriously bad

I’ve written often enough about inflation in these pages, with three prior posts this year alone:

I took care to point out how profoundly flawed and unrealistic the “official” rate of inflation is.  Much more accurate and realistic measurements may be found at Shadowstats or the Chapwood Index, both of which are (IMHO) indispensable.

Miss D. and I had an object lesson in this inflationary reality yesterday, when we went shopping at Sams Club for ingredients for a supper for friends.  Admittedly, we didn’t buy cheap stuff:  we bought meat, dried fruit, and some fancy frills, with no cheap carbs included at all.  Nevertheless, this is all stuff we’ve bought before.  We got severe sticker shock at the till.  The total cost for everything was at least 30% higher than the last time we’d bought it, and closer to 40% on the overall bill.  This is over a period of not more than six to nine months!

I’ve been noticing it as well during the last couple of weeks, as I sort through our emergency supplies, discard those that are well past their expiry date, and replace them with new stocks.  The replacement prices for many items are between 50% and 100% higher than they were only two to four years ago!  We’re talking things like canned tuna, chicken and beef, trail mix bars, sachets of condiments, and so on.  Staples such as rice, dried beans, etc. aren’t as badly affected, but they’re still up to a third higher than they were last time I checked.

We aren’t serious “preppers” by any means – we can’t afford to be.  I’ve slowly built up about three months’ supply of food on hand, much of which consists of our regular pantry items stacked a little deeper than usual.  However, I’m beginning to think that those who’ve salted away a year or more of food supplies may well find their cache is a very welcome hedge against inflation, as well as for emergencies.  If something is too expensive to afford right now, they can consume their stored reserves of it until its price comes down again, or until they can afford to restock.  That will add very practical everyday value to one’s emergency preparations.

If you’ve noticed the same sort of cost increases, you’re not alone.  Here are two recent articles providing more information than any “official” source:

I highly recommend that you read both of them carefully, considering the points raised by the authors.  The charts provided in the first article are particularly informative.  If you don’t understand this stuff, you won’t understand why your money is being stretched further and further every day, and buying less and less.

We continue to sink deeper and deeper into a high-inflation environment;  yet, our government continues to lie to us about it, because if they told the truth, they’d have to adjust their entitlement programs, salaries, pensions, etc. in accordance with the facts – and that would bankrupt them (and our nation).  They’d rather lie, and hope we don’t notice what they’re doing.  That applies across the board, to Democrats and Republicans alike.  There are few if any honest politicians when it comes to the economic facts of life.

Your wallet is proof positive, in itself, that they’re up to no good.  We’re all going to pay the price for that – economically and otherwise.



  1. The cost of a loaf of bread has always been a tracking point for inflation. Recently the bread that I buy increased in price by ~25%.

    Granted, I hadn't seen any price change for at least a year (maybe more?), it was still a shock.

  2. Purely anecdotal but I'm in Germany on vacation and have noticed I'm paying half as much for better quality food, both restaurant and grocery.

  3. Yep, prices ARE up! I don't track it daily, but I know McDonalds biscuits are up .45 cents in the last six months.

  4. Prices on some things are down or unchanged from a couple of years ago. Spiral sliced ham at costco is currently $2.99. It's been higher than that, and as low as $1.99. Pork and chicken have been more affected by disease in the world's herds than inflation.

    Kirkland smoked salmon fluctuates very little but did move above $1/ounce, then back, and is currently slightly higher than that.

    Maple syrup is 11.99 a bottle at costco, and was as high as 13.99 at one point. It's $14 at HEB, our local big chain grocery for the same size and quality.

    Smoked almonds had a similar run up but are back to normal lows of a couple of years ago.

    Canned veg goes on sale BOGO about every 3 months, which does a lot to offset the 30% increase in price from $1/can to $1.29. Same for canned beans. Even campbells soup will go on sale for $1. There may be some hidden size inflation (getting less for same price) but I didn't notice any in canned goods.

    Breakfast cereal boxes have gotten so thin I'm amazed that they will stand on the shelves. SERIOUS size inflation there. Costco is still the place for cereal if they stock something you will eat, esp. during periodic sales.


  5. @ Greg Dannet:
    Germany is not an expensive place to live, compared with other similar european countries.
    BUT the EU heavily subsidizes agriculture so I don't know how "real" the prices are.

  6. @ EF G
    At least the EU subsidation seems to trickle down to the consumer then. The US also subsidises ag, but perhaps more for the benefit of politicians.

    I'm in CA and where the breadth and variety of agriculture would be difficult to overestimate. Food prices for quality I feel should be comparable to Germany. Maybe CA should subsidises agriculture instead of other endeavors, but I guess there's not enough graft in less expensive food.

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